MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)

Should meet final debt target by end of this year. After that, has committed 100% of free cashflow to shareholders and buying back stock. Remains incredibly bullish on it, more than a double from here.

Not a bad chart. Bit of resistance coming up. Maybe $3-4 upside. If it tests and breaks above $24, that would be good. Hasn't bought because upside is to $24 and not sure it will break out. If you own it, it's great. Could also be a short-term trade.

Profit fell 78% on lower oil prices; to 28c per share from $1.15. Revenue fell 3.3% on a 5.2% increase in production.
Debt was reduced by $117M and buybacks were $103M. EPS did miss estimates by 28%.
The stock is cheap at 8X earnings. The balance sheet is improving.
Despite the miss, what it can control (production) was good, and it is priced very well.
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Lots of leverage to oil prices, long-life reserves. Strong free cashflow yield where oil prices are today. If oil sits between $70-80 over the next 5 years, hold for yield, decreased debt, share buybacks, potential dividend growth.

Doesn't own either. Usually sticks with light oil, but see his Top Picks. If he had to choose, he'd pick MEG: larger market cap, better liquidity and institutional ownership. 

ATH is more focused on debt reduction. It does buybacks, and he prefers dividends for income. Rocky stock performance. 

Largest holding in fund and continues to own shares.
Highly leveraged to the price of oil.
Expecting a 100% gain in share price.
Premium quality asset and very long reserve life.
Returning 100% of cash flow to shareholders by the end of the year.
Will continue to own shares.

A small cap energy name has outperformed bigger peers. A great performer. He remains bullish oil, but shares are ahead of its skiis. Take profits.

Will continue own shares.
10% weighting of fund (largest holding).
35 year reserve life index.
Publicly declared 100% return of free cash flow by the end of the year.
Has pledged to buyback shares.
6x multiple (12% free cash flow yield) equates to $47 share price.

Makes sense. MEG is a pure oil play with long-life reserves, and BIR is more levered to natural gas. You're adding a new level of risk to switch back and forth. The risk is you do it at the wrong time and end up losing. The volatility is beautiful on the upside, but kills you on the downside. Instead, buy ARX with decent nat gas, and a light oil play since they bought Seven Generations, and production growth. Then you don't have to make the decisions about moving back and forth.