MEG Energy Corp (MEG-T)

Likes it. Similar valuation to SU on cashflow, but with 35 years of reserves.

Pure play on heavy oil. Long-life, low-decline, very scalable assets. Production easily doubled due to size of resource. Highly leveraged to any upside in oil. Sightline to greater ROC of 50-75% via share buybacks. High quality. M&A candidate for Suncor. No dividend.

Still sees meaningful upside. Expecting $80 oil going forward which is good for bottom line. At least 35 years of stay flat inventory. Expecting final debt target in Q1 2024. 100% of cash flow expected to be returned in 2024. Expecting a 6x multiple for a $37 share price. Will continue to own shares.  

Will continue to owns shares.
Can't find better names.
Singular asset (oil).
Excellent balance sheet - almost 0 debt.
High oil prices good for business.
Trading at ~4x cash flow.
35 years of reserves. 
Expecting ~$45-$50 share price. 

Believes energy space very strong.
Company buying back lots of shares.
Long life asset with lots of cash flow.
Tax pools also valuable.
Oil above $75 is very good for business. 

Thesis hasn't changed. If you're bullish oil, he can't find a better name. The largest weighting in his fund at around 12%. 50% of free cashflow goes to shareholders, the rest goes to pay down debt. Solid name.

A great chart. Even in a pullback, it will just return to its trendline.

Editor's Note; This should be added to the rest of today's (Monday) Market Call comments. Energy stocks have had similar patterns. You could gingerly step into energy since there should be an eventual breakout. MEG is going sideways and therefore falls into the typical energy pattern. It has an OK chart. Buy at the bottom of the range.

Should meet final debt target by end of this year. After that, has committed 100% of free cashflow to shareholders and buying back stock. Remains incredibly bullish on it, more than a double from here.

Not a bad chart. Bit of resistance coming up. Maybe $3-4 upside. If it tests and breaks above $24, that would be good. Hasn't bought because upside is to $24 and not sure it will break out. If you own it, it's great. Could also be a short-term trade.

Profit fell 78% on lower oil prices; to 28c per share from $1.15. Revenue fell 3.3% on a 5.2% increase in production.
Debt was reduced by $117M and buybacks were $103M. EPS did miss estimates by 28%.
The stock is cheap at 8X earnings. The balance sheet is improving.
Despite the miss, what it can control (production) was good, and it is priced very well.
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