Opinions by Gerard Ferguson | StockChase
141
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jun 2016

Jemekk Capital Management


Opinions by Gerard Ferguson


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2017-07-10

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Markets.  With uncertain economic data and what Trump will do, there is a lot of uncertainty.  He is becoming more defensive.  He has reduced some long positions and increased some short positions.  There are long opportunities, but you have to be a stock picker.  It is not about sectors, but stocks.  Canada is very cyclical.  There are more opportunities in the US, but you will find a greater rate of return in Canada.  He has about 20% in cash.  He has a lot more put protection in the market now.  It is very hard to use hard stops on core positions.  10-20% of his portfolio is normally shorts.  He also does pairs trades. 

Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-07-10

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

The expectation for increases in interest rates has caused a pull back in interest sensitive stocks.  He thinks rates won’t go up much and it will be low for longer.

Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-07-10

TOP PICK
Air Canada (AC-T)

It is a cyclical stock.  It is benefiting from a dramatic increase in passenger traffic.  We have low fuel prices and the US dollar both benefitting them.  He thinks they will issue a surprise dividend at their investor day in September.  (Analysts’ target: $20.50).

Transportation
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $20.370
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-10

WEAK BUY
Aurora Cannabis (ACB-T)

They are moving to the big board.  It is probably the third Marijuana company to be listed on the TSX.  He thinks this won’t attract more investors internationally.  This is a step along the maturation phase for this company and for the industry.  This company also has a lot of convertible debt. 

Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $2.150
Owned: Unknown

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2017-07-10

PAST TOP PICK
Boyd Group Income Fund (BYD.UN-T)

(Top Pick Apr 4/17, Up 12.67%) There are typically more accidents in some weather conditions and this benefits the stock.  They are a consistent performer year after year.  Self driving cars are seen as a long term risk to this business, but that is 10-15 years out.  Shorter term there is currency risk.  From an operations point of view they have done an excellent job.  He expects double digit rates of return as they continue to acquire and increase store locations.

other services
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $95.010
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-10

BUY
CCL Industries (B) (CCL.B-T)

Since it split they have also done an equity issue.  There was some insider selling.  The market should digest that quickly.  They have done a fantastic job for a long time.  It is an acquisition driven story. 

packaging/containers
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $61.980
Owned: Unknown

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2017-07-10

HOLD
Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR-T)

He looks at it as a sustainable dividend name.  It is a slow growth type of company.

Transportation & Environmental Services
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $7.710
Owned: No

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2017-07-10

BUY
Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T)

They have struggled recently.  They are digesting an acquisition. It is going to be a play on energy prices.

oil/gas
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $36.950
Owned: Unknown

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2017-07-10

WEAK BUY
Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) (CTC.A-T)

If he liked any retailer, this would be it, but he doesn’t.  They will become a player in ecommerce. 

specialty stores
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $144.700
Owned: No

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2017-07-10

BUY on WEAKNESS
Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T)

One of Canada’s greatest success stories.  It is common to sell too early in this name.  They have impressed in terms of their store roll out and have outperformed their US peers.  He thinks they will continue to deliver.  Stocks don’t go up forever and will eventually pull back so you can get it again.  He thinks it will split, but this won’t increase value for the investor, however.

Consumer Products
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $122.030
Owned: Unknown

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2017-07-10

DON'T BUY
Hudson Bay Co. (HBC-T)

The retail space is a very difficult space.  The core of their business is retailing, but the story is about retail and acquisition.  As a real estate company they are getting near the bottom. but as a retailer there is really very little value.  He does not like any retailers.

department stores
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $10.740
Owned: Unknown

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2017-07-10

PAST TOP PICK
New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI-T)

(Top Pick Apr 4/17, Up 12.29%) It is a play on transportation.  They made some big acquisitions in the past and are integrating them so that you see the impact on margins.

income trust
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $55.310
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-10

BUY
NexGen Energy (NXE-T)

Uranium.  It has been an enticing sector for 15 years, but they have chronically disappointed.  You can get surprises in the exploring space.  This one is one of them.  They are well capitalized.  This project will take a couple more years. but it will be a world class mine.  There may be players interested in taking them out.

Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $2.940
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-10

PAST TOP PICK
Polaris Infrastructure (PIF-T)

(Top Pick Apr 4/17, Up 17.84%) They reported a strong quarter.  They had gone through a restructuring and now they are focusing on operating as expected.  They are going to expand the current project and then move onto new ones.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $16.660
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-10

BUY on WEAKNESS
Shopify Inc. (SHOP-T)

They had a great move, but it is not cheap.  It is really a Canadian success story and there is room to grow.  It is a name that people sell when they rotate out of the space.  There is a floor around their recently equity issue.  It is his largest position in the fund.  They have shown their ability to deliver.

Gerard Ferguson

CEO & Portfolio Manager, Jemekk Capital Management

Price: $117.460
Owned: Yes

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