Boeing (BA-N)

The CFO recently made comments: the troubled 737 is closer to resuming production, as the 787 could increase production later this year. Really, the 737 is more important. Also, their ailing defence business is starting to stabilize and recover, though their commercial business could improve. Maybe cash flow will improve; there are signs it is already. They won't be hit by tariffs, because 80-90% of their supply chain is in the US. They have a half-trillion-dollar backlog Last Friday, the US Air Force awarded Boeing the contract for fighter jets. He'd like to see a few good quarters of stronger results, and it's early in this turnaround though it's getting its act together. Also, Boeing enjoys little competition and airplane demand is strong.

LMT has definitely done better over the last couple of years. BA is a bit of a recovery play here. In general, where we are in the cycle, he thinks we're in phase 2 but on the cusp of phase 3. Phase 2 is typically where materials, industrials, and technology continue to do well. 

These names should do OK, but we are approaching the end of the cycle. Ultimately, at some point, we'll see rotation out of these industrial plays.

Not a bad sign. On a 5-year chart, you can see somewhat of a floor in the low $120s. It's bounced off that. Is there potential? Yes, that bounce plus positive divergence gives you potential to perhaps reach the top of that trading range (+/- $240). 

It can do well in 2025 if the CEO executes. He hasn't bought it though. Shares have bottomed.

Aviation is attractive because of structural demand and the industry structure. Only a couple of players in an essential industry. In any other industry, would be bankrupt. From the outside, can't know if it's fixed. Don't consider. 

Puzzling. The big stock dilution hurt earnings power, but they enjoy a duopoly with Airbus, so eventually this will rebound.

Company under pressure - recent announcements to raise debt and equity. Working capital has fallen short lately. Recent union negotiations time consuming. However, demand for products high. Will depend on how well company executes in the next 1-2 years. Time will tell. Would recommend watching for now. 

Enjoys an oligopoly with Airbus. There's strong demand from the airlines as more people are travelling. However, Boeing has a terrible balance sheet, problems with the 737 Max, parts shortages, and now the unions. Management needs to prove it can deliver and right the ship. Airlines may prefer Airbus long term. Boeing needs to redeem itself.

A nightmare. They reported a horrendous quarter today, losing $1 billion a month from this machinists' strike, and they've forgotten how to make planes. That said, buy a lot of shares when they do a secondary offering (much lower than the current share price) to shore up their balance sheet to survive. Why buy? They enjoy a duopoly. After this strike, Boeing will be back to profit again. Demand for airplanes remains strong, a half-trillion dollars worth. The company has poor, arrogant management, and a lousy corporate culture.

Is worried. Poor balance sheet and fears there will be a strike.

Prefers not to step in front; like picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer. You could buy it and be a hero, but he'd prefer to buy at 20% off the lows with a better technical setup. Too many unhappy shareholders just waiting for it to move higher so they can get their money back. You want happy shareholders around you.

He owns GE (it's now purely jet engines after the spinoff). Also owns ERJ, which has an opportunity to win significant market share. 

She sold Boeing after being very patient with it. But the labour negotiation and the company coming to market to raise capital changed her mind. Eventually, Boeing will right itself though.

Today the strategy is to sell a put option to get in at the entry point, maybe January 2026 or June 2025, looking to sell at $150. He would buy additional out of the money puts in case of more problems with the company.

Both of the primary upstream manufacturing units are incurring operating losses. Technical issues are troubling. Labour issues. Fixed-price contracts at a time of rising inflation. Covid really hurt. Order backlog starting to rebuild. Still no dividend. Lots of debt. New CEO will take a while to settle in.