Director & Portfolio Manager at Private Wealth Management, ScotiaMcleod
Member since: Jun '09 · 3050 Opinions
Since 1928 on average, S&P 500 has a correction of at least 10% in a typical year, and 3 pullbacks of 5%. Volatility we've been seeing, down about 4%, is very normal. We will see these pullbacks and corrections throughout the years.
Yes. We're looking at almost 7% profit growth in the US in 2024, and 14% in 2025. We want to pay attention to corporate earnings. Had a really great move from November through March, so no surprise that we're seeing a little volatility in the markets today. Markets and investors are digesting some of those returns.
Good news is that we're seeing more participation outside of tech and communication sectors. Recall that 2023 was all about tech and communications. Now other sectors are participating, which is great for investors.
Near term, be slightly guarded in how you deploy cash. Allow this consolidation phase to play out a bit before the next leg of an upturn happens.
Certainly lots of dry powder in money market funds. $6T is near historical highs. That can fuel further stock gains later this year. If rates start to come down a bit on short-term notes and money market, perhaps some of those funds will shift into equities and bonds.
55% US equities, 30% Canada, 15% elsewhere. He's been overweight the US for quite a while. US has better depth, better earnings, and a stronger economy. Plus a bigger sandbox to play in. The USD has helped in terms of the currency moves.
He'll probably continue to be overweight US relative to Canada.
Gives investors exposure to US equity markets, but alongside income generation through an options overlay strategy where they sell call options out of the money call options. Yield is about 7.5%, fantastic. MER is 35 bps.
However, if you look at the returns, you'll see better returns from the underlying markets such as the S&P 500. Great to use if you need the income. But historically, covered call trades off upside from the underlying securities.
Likes long-term secular growth of moving from cash to digital, will continue to grow. Shares are down about 10% since recent highs in March, it's just part of the consolidation phase. Long-term, continue to own and buy.
MA should see about 15% earnings growth going forward. Seeing more world travel, and US consumer remains very healthy. MA gives you a bit more international exposure, Visa is larger. Approaching 200-day MA, so could provide a pretty solid support level and a chance to buy a bit cheaper.
Likes long-term secular growth of moving from cash to digital, will continue to grow. MA gives you a bit more international exposure, Visa is larger. At this point, Visa's performance has been a bit stronger than MA, so on technicals, MA is the better one to put fresh money into.
Behemoth. Long-term demographics makes this a name you want to hold. Shares trending flat for the last couple of years. 200-day MA is sideways at this point, and shares are slightly below that point. Yield is 1.5%, nothing fantastic, but likes it long term.
Earnings should continue to grow, about 12% growth right now. Not a lot of strong competitors in the space. In healthcare, money has gone into the growthier names like LLY and NVO.
Sometimes ETFs in the US will have slightly less expensive MERs compared to Canadian counterparts. If looking at the S&P 500, it's not a cheap index at this point. You want to be very selective in terms of the names you own. S&P 500 as a whole is about 27x, rich. But it's also very heavy in tech, about 35-40% in true technology names. And the tech sector is around 7.5x price to sales right now, expensive.
Right now, he doesn't own any S&P 500 ETFs. He'd prefer an ETF with a quality factor that looks at quality names, such as QUAL.
Right now, he doesn't own any S&P 500 ETFs. He'd prefer an ETF with a quality factor that looks at quality names, such as QUAL. Streamlines some of the names, and you get away from the more expensive S&P 500 names.
Makes sense to hold some technology, as we've seen momentum over the past year. However, in the past few months, tech hasn't necessarily been a full leader. In fact, over the last month it's been at the back of the pack. Perhaps an opportunity to purchase, but be very selective with your names. He owns GOOG, AMZN, NFLX and MSFT, but no AAPL, META or NVDA.
Looking at the index, average price to sales of the Mag 7 names is 6.5x, PE is 36x. Pricey. The S&P is closer to 2x. Be careful of what names you own, what the growth rate is and, more importantly, what your portfolio allocation to tech is.
Likes it, screens well. Decent price to book ratio, attractive relative to other names today. Shares have come down with the correction, mainly due to interest rates popping up a bit. Affected by interest rates. Quality, good management. Yield is 5.4%, strong.
Really likes it, ranks among the highest in his Canadian screens. Good management and execution, store expansion, need for consumers to shift to better-value pricing. Very good growth rate, one of the faster EPS growers in the Canadian universe. Near overbought. Earnings growth estimated 22% over next few years. No real serious competitors in Canada.
Screens companies for quality factors: low leverage, consistent earnings, ROE, etc. Top names include LLY, META, NVDA, MSFT, Visa, MA, UNH. Likes the space. Among the factors of quality, value, growth and momentum, quality is one of the better factors today.
Firing on all cylinders. Still expensive at 19x forward price to sales. Management keeps executing, earnings keep coming in stronger. AI is coming, and NVDA is at the forefront. He prefers AMD.