NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA-Q)

Considers the US restrictions as short-term obstacles. Stock's starting to rebound quite nicely. The leader today in AI computing, and for the foreseeable future. Strong global thirst and demand for AI infrastructure. Unmatched advantages compared to other names in the space. Data centres are driving growth. Recent earnings beat. 

AI adoption is still in very early stages. Still trading at 1x PEG ratio. Earnings growth is not reflected in the valuation. Sees EPS at 33% going forward. Yield is 0.03%.

One of the things his team's looking at right now is that it seems some of the regulations surrounding the semiconductor industry will be reduced (specifically China, but other countries as well). That could mean an expanded market for the semi manufacturing equipment companies, such as KLAC. AVGO has also been a strong performer, and he owns some NVDA. Those two names have strong relative price performance, are economically sensitive, cyclical, and have pricing power.

Is the leader in the AI race with its chips. He likes this, except the underlying political situation whether NVDA or another chip company will get effected whenever the rules change. Mitigate risk: only placing a stop loss. He targets $175-180, but it won't be a smoothride.

It rallied 1.7% on a very choppy day, but the reason is unclear. The market is betting that Trump will let NVDA sell $50 billion of chips this year and China will cut a deal with the U.S. with its rare earths, which the U.S. needs. Who knows what will happen? Anything can happen. If the sale is blocked, then wouldn't this encourage to invest more in making its own chips?

Won't easily be toppled from the throne on which it finds itself. Every time someone thinks they can do that, it comes out with a new version of the chip that's even better. Definitely the bellwether on demand going forward. Any sign of negativity in the comments tonight won't play well for any name in this arena.

He has a coin to flip on what the results are going to be. The interesting thing about today's report is that he feels the bar's being set a bit lower than in previous quarters. We're now in the thick of uncertainty about where the economy is going over the next 6 months after the impact of Trump's policies. We've heard cautionary whispers coming out, so analysts may be looking for some negativity in the comments tonight.

If results aren't as bad as we think, stock could see a nice little pop. Stock's consolidated after a nice rebound from April. It comes down to where's the market, where's the bar been truly set, and what does the CEO say?

Personally, he thinks the street's prepared for some bad news tonight. If it gets that, but nothing worse, it doesn't mean the market will crater on this stock. There will be nagging concerns:  that we've priced too much into the stock, we've priced in too much demand, what's the competition going forward, are there viable and cheaper options coming out of other countries like China? If so, investors will be prepared to pull back. But it's not over yet for the stock; it's still the market leader and a solid company going forward.

They just reported a strong top and bottom line beat with healthy guidance even after taking an $8 billion sales hit on Trump's ban on sales to China. He remains a huge fan of the CEO>

Will a new Blackwell chip they will send to China be a big source of income? Doesn't know, but what is Trump's view of this deal? China can play the long game vs. the U.S. As for NVDA's earning this week, analyst estimates are spanning a broad, but not crazy $140-200. There are 68 buys, 9 holds and 1 sell. For NVDA to take out $150 resistance, their quarter must be stallar and include no worries about China--and he doesn't see that. So, the stock may retreat to around $120, but not to April's lows in the $90's.

Likes it ahead of next week's earnings. They beat top and bottom line their last 4 quarters and expects a fifth.

Has to be in your top 5 holdings, even at $137. If you can ever get it just under $100, it'll be golden for you, you'll just have to back up the truck. 12-month price target of $161.40, and that's only going to move up. NVDA is to GPUs as AAPL is to smartphones. Making a lot of "other bets" that will pay off for them as it did for GOOG.

If you don't own it, buy 1/4-1/3 of a position here, another bit in the $120s, and then around $110.

So tied into ETF buying and selling that when it sells off, it's very aggressive. If you believe in the stock longer term, then buy when there's a big selloff. Current leader in AI, but it won't be the only game in town. CEO is dumping stock like a wild man, so be careful.