Nuvista Energy Ltd

NVA-T

Analysis and Opinions about NVA-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
November 15, 2019
He bought near the lows when there was fear it would be removed from the index. He thinks it should be trading near $6. Their market cap is lower than the capital they raised to purchase an asset from Cenovus. They released an update on new production that validated the purchase. He continues to own it. Their operations can support a continued 15% growth on future cash flow. He sees good upside.
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Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA-T)
November 15, 2019
He bought near the lows when there was fear it would be removed from the index. He thinks it should be trading near $6. Their market cap is lower than the capital they raised to purchase an asset from Cenovus. They released an update on new production that validated the purchase. He continues to own it. Their operations can support a continued 15% growth on future cash flow. He sees good upside.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 11, 2019

VII-T vs CR-T? He would stay away from CR-T due to its debt level. VII-T has a good management team, but its slow down in growth highlighted their 50% decline rates in existing assets. This causes too much of their cash flow to still be required for maintenance. He would prefer NVA-T, which trades at a lower multiple of cash flow, has a better balance sheet, and lower decline rates on production.

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Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA-T)
October 11, 2019

VII-T vs CR-T? He would stay away from CR-T due to its debt level. VII-T has a good management team, but its slow down in growth highlighted their 50% decline rates in existing assets. This causes too much of their cash flow to still be required for maintenance. He would prefer NVA-T, which trades at a lower multiple of cash flow, has a better balance sheet, and lower decline rates on production.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 30, 2019
The stock has fallen from $8 to $1.60. The market cap today is below what they raised in 2018. This is heavily shorted based on fears of TSX de-listing. It's trading at 2.6x cash flow, and 27% free cash flow yield. There's such a gap between share price and fundamentals. (Analysts’ price target is $5.17)
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The stock has fallen from $8 to $1.60. The market cap today is below what they raised in 2018. This is heavily shorted based on fears of TSX de-listing. It's trading at 2.6x cash flow, and 27% free cash flow yield. There's such a gap between share price and fundamentals. (Analysts’ price target is $5.17)
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 12, 2019
If you go back 10 years. You see lows from 2012 and 2016. It depends on the top side resistance, but there is a lot of room. The company is well run with good balance sheet. The cash flow has been really good here. We could get quite a surprise here. A year from now you will be happy with these energy names.
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If you go back 10 years. You see lows from 2012 and 2016. It depends on the top side resistance, but there is a lot of room. The company is well run with good balance sheet. The cash flow has been really good here. We could get quite a surprise here. A year from now you will be happy with these energy names.
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
June 18, 2019
It continues to be under pressure and they believe commodities are challenged longer term. Here they saw a multi-month rally which could show upside into September. This could rally back to key resistance near $3.50 followed by a resumption of the bear trend. He would sell into this rally.
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It continues to be under pressure and they believe commodities are challenged longer term. Here they saw a multi-month rally which could show upside into September. This could rally back to key resistance near $3.50 followed by a resumption of the bear trend. He would sell into this rally.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 15, 2019
It has been beaten up strongly. It is a timely pick because we are right in the seasonality. $6.40 is the next place it will have pause. It is an Alberta-only oil and gas production company. 2018 results were fantastic. (Analysts’ price target is $7.95)
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It has been beaten up strongly. It is a timely pick because we are right in the seasonality. $6.40 is the next place it will have pause. It is an Alberta-only oil and gas production company. 2018 results were fantastic. (Analysts’ price target is $7.95)
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2016

This one depends on your view on gas. He would put this up there with the half-dozen Montney focused names. Has been very impressed with the ongoing improvement of well results. Definitely top tier.

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This one depends on your view on gas. He would put this up there with the half-dozen Montney focused names. Has been very impressed with the ongoing improvement of well results. Definitely top tier.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 21, 2016

(Top Pick Feb 05’15, Down 12.90%) He got about an 8% yield. It has performed quite well, year over year. They have most of their assets in Saskatchewan and the Canadian pension plan is a partner. It should be the end of the axe swinging.

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(Top Pick Feb 05’15, Down 12.90%) He got about an 8% yield. It has performed quite well, year over year. They have most of their assets in Saskatchewan and the Canadian pension plan is a partner. It should be the end of the axe swinging.

BUY
BUY
October 7, 2015

They have been having some great success in the field. They are a growing concern. They hit a sweet spot. Their net backs are approaching $15. Debt is no longer a concern. They also had some great hedges in place.

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They have been having some great success in the field. They are a growing concern. They hit a sweet spot. Their net backs are approaching $15. Debt is no longer a concern. They also had some great hedges in place.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 8, 2015

Drilling some really interesting wells where the economics is really the condensate. This is really a play on oil prices coming back. When you look at the valuation versus a pure oil stock, it is trading at about a 2X lower multiple. Good value. Good management. Well hedged for 2015.

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Drilling some really interesting wells where the economics is really the condensate. This is really a play on oil prices coming back. When you look at the valuation versus a pure oil stock, it is trading at about a 2X lower multiple. Good value. Good management. Well hedged for 2015.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 5, 2015

Likes that they hedged out a lot of their gas and condensate production for the next year. Great asset and no debt problem. A lot of other companies would strategically like to own this asset.

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Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA-T)
February 5, 2015

Likes that they hedged out a lot of their gas and condensate production for the next year. Great asset and no debt problem. A lot of other companies would strategically like to own this asset.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 29, 2014

The Montney is certainly attractive. It has been an area of focus for many energy companies. Ultimately what is attractive, is an LNG solution at some point. His only concern on this company is that it is a gas weighted name. There is really no catalyst for gas other than the seasonality. It has been a weak, weak time in general. He sees both gas and oil trading sideways for the next year.

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Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA-T)
October 29, 2014

The Montney is certainly attractive. It has been an area of focus for many energy companies. Ultimately what is attractive, is an LNG solution at some point. His only concern on this company is that it is a gas weighted name. There is really no catalyst for gas other than the seasonality. It has been a weak, weak time in general. He sees both gas and oil trading sideways for the next year.

SELL
SELL
June 20, 2013

(Market Call Minute.) Great company but too expensive as a stock. He would sell this one to buy Tourmaline (TOU-T).

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(Market Call Minute.) Great company but too expensive as a stock. He would sell this one to buy Tourmaline (TOU-T).

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 17, 2013

Natural gas has done very well because of a very, very cold April. The massive surface of gas storage has been whittled down to a deficit now, quite significantly. We are now in the shoulder season where weather is pretty tempered, so it is not until the summertime when it gets really warm that we burn a lot of gas to meet air conditioning needs. This stock is approaching levels that are pretty rich and wouldn’t be surprised if the company came to market to try to de-lever to ramp up CapX because they are sitting on a profitable liquids rich play. There are more attractive opportunities elsewhere.

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Natural gas has done very well because of a very, very cold April. The massive surface of gas storage has been whittled down to a deficit now, quite significantly. We are now in the shoulder season where weather is pretty tempered, so it is not until the summertime when it gets really warm that we burn a lot of gas to meet air conditioning needs. This stock is approaching levels that are pretty rich and wouldn’t be surprised if the company came to market to try to de-lever to ramp up CapX because they are sitting on a profitable liquids rich play. There are more attractive opportunities elsewhere.

HOLD
HOLD
April 16, 2013

Has been a bit of an enigma for the past couple of years. Great quality assets and great management but market never really liked it going back several months but now has come into its own. Thinks it has probably run its course in terms of value on a relative basis. Great assets. He thinks there are more compelling relative values.

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Has been a bit of an enigma for the past couple of years. Great quality assets and great management but market never really liked it going back several months but now has come into its own. Thinks it has probably run its course in terms of value on a relative basis. Great assets. He thinks there are more compelling relative values.

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