Buy, Sell or Hold: Newmont Goldcorp (NGT-T)

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Newmont Goldcorp (NGT-T)

TSE:NGT

69.58

1.61 (2.37%) 1d

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Investor Insights

This summary was created by AI, based on 5 opinions in the last 12 months.

Newmont Goldcorp, identified by the symbol NGT-T, stands as the world's largest gold miner, with analysts expressing a mix of cautious optimism and skepticism regarding its future performance. While one viewpoint highlights the potential for gold price increases to enhance margins if costs stabilize, another suggests concerns over the company's weak guidance for 2025, flat revenues, and the possibility of shrinking profits in the event of a gold price dip. Additionally, some experts criticize NGT's growth prospects, emphasizing a shift toward other gold companies like AEM as a potentially better investment due to the former's stagnant production growth. Despite these critiques, others maintain a bullish stance on NGT, appreciating its solid management, strategic asset finding capabilities, and resistance to geographical risks, though acknowledging the recent institutional focus on AI stocks has diverted attention from gold investments.

Consensus

Mixed

Valuation

Fair Value

Similar

Agnico-Eagle Mines, AEM-T

DON'T BUY

Gold's done well. She typically doesn't invest in commodity sectors. If you want gold exposure, her preference has always been AEM or FNV.

WEAK BUY

World's largest gold miner. She continues to be bullish on gold at these prices. World-class assets. Gold's price rise could lift margins if costs stabilize. Costs jumped. Weak 2025 guidance. Revenue flat. If gold dips, profits will shrink fast. Stable, still room to run.

(Analysts’ price target is $82.00)

SELL

Sell NGT to buy AEM?

He'd go with that strategy. He's been lightening up on gold. With a strong USD, and interest rates possibly being higher, gold may take a few steps back.

The two biggest names, NGT and ABX, have really shown miserable production growth. Underperformed the group for a number of years now. They don't have the growth assets and their size means they can't accelerate as much. AEM is the new top senior.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 11/23, Up 13%)

NGT and AEM have overtaken ABX as the monsters in the industry by market cap. Well run. Keeps his exposure in the gold sector to 5% or less. Often a good buffer in troubled times.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 11/23, Up 40%)

Still owns shares, and believes business will continue to perform. Excellent management team with good capital allocation skills. Doesn't have geographic risk that other producers have. Very good at finding gold and new assets.

DON'T BUY

Owned by the big institutions and they're out chasing AI stocks, so not much interest in gold.

DON'T BUY

Largest gold producer in the world. Global. Expects synergies from latest acquisition. Balance sheet still in good shape. Well run. A go-to, if you like gold. But look at the chart -- owning gold over the last 20 years has been a tough game.

If you want a miner, go with the copper miners, better risk/reward, part of the next ESG evolution/revolution of where the world is going.

TOP PICK

Takeover of Newcrest is huge, propelling it to be the largest in the world at what it does. Exposure to all the metals, and especially to copper with the acquisition. Operates primarily in relatively low-risk areas. Attractive opportunity for some gold exposure during uncertain times such as now. Yield is 4.14%.

(Analysts’ price target is $70.61)

BUY

The miners are very cheap. The question is what's going to happen to the commodity, because you have to make your call on it before you look at the businesses. If the price of gold goes sideways, those companies won't do much. Right now, he likes stocks better than royalties. Royalty companies are better to have once things get going. Stocks like AEM, NGT and ABX are really down, and that's a better way to play now.