IBM

IBM-N

He wouldn't buy IBM for the dividend. The valuation is good. The risk is Red Hat to move to cloud computing that hasn't paid off yet. It's at a 10 times multiple, so it is still pretty cheap. The balance sheet looks good. Current yield of 4.8% is safe.

IBM should be killing it now--huge--considering macro tech trends like machine-learning, but IBM doesn't, can't, make it happen. They were a hardware business then acquired software businesses which increased their profits. After that, they bought back shares, which is a good idea in general, but IBM should not have. Rather, they should have reinvested to innovate. He doesn't know if their Red Hat deal will work out.

The most hated stock on the S&P. IBM is doing a lot of things right. It trades much lower vs. its peers, so it doesn't take a lot to get a 20-30% return out of it. The bar is set so low. The EPS is around 10-11x. They just closed on the Red Hat cloud deal. Revenue growth is 2-3% annual, but they are cutting out big-revenue, but low-margin contracts which should improve their bottom line. Red Hat's CEO could be the next IBM head, which is a plus. (Analysts’ price target is $154.76)

It's cheap now and making good cash flow. However, it isn't growing. It missed out of the cloud computing business. They paid a lot for Red Hat, and integrating that will be interesting and no guarantee it'll work. IBM is on probation for him. He'd rather buy MSFT or Google.

(A Top Pick Jul 23/18, Down 2%) A value tech stock. He sold this and bought Google, because it was growing faster. IBM has trouble growing; it's been stagnant.

He bought it about two months ago around $140. The Red Hat acquisition created a buying opportunity he thought. The company is moving into the cloud space and IBM has strong footholds with the banks in the data space. When the banks move to the cloud, IBM will be the company they turn to. He is very comfortable with this being a solid hold.