David Driscoll IBM Common Stock IBM-N DON'T BUY May 14, 2025

It just reported great numbers and shares jumped 13%. Redhat has made this an AI winner. It rallied 34% last year. They've had 6 straight quarters of positive sales growth, leading to an earnings beat and excellent free cash flow. Their full year forecast includes accelerating revenue growth and free cash flow. YOY growth: infrastructure -8%, consulting -2%, software 10% which is the largest segment, amounting to 43% of 2024 revenues. Software got stronger as 2024 wore on, and this segment could make up 50% of IBM's business. Specifically, Red Hat grew 16% YOY in Q4 and automation 15%. Watson X and Red Hat are key growers, enjoying the AI tailwind. Their GenAI business generates over $5 billion of business, growing by $2 billion, quarter-over-quarter. That said, shares went sideways last October given a miss in their consulting business, but the CEO feels AI will return this segment to growth in 2026. Tailwinds: a good backlog, record signing in Q4, and business in GenAI all support accelerating growth in low-single digits. Caveat: their PE is 24x PE and 22x in 2026, instead of around 10x, but their return to steady growth justifies the PE and software will generate more recurring revenue. An indirect AI play that won't be hurt by DeepSeek.

Bought on promise of its AI partnerships. Moved up steadily, but he worried that legacy businesses were lagging. He sold when valuations got into low 20s. Have to know when to buy, and when to sell.

He added it last May, and up 51% since. Today's more fully valued at 23x. Remains a long-term hold, given their AI consulting.

It wasn't seen as an AI play until their partnership with Microsoft. Shares then rallied. He sold around $235 after the PE jumped as its value dropped. 

Legacy tech giants like this have been some of the top names this year and are a good place to hide. They boast strong earnings, reasonable valuations and good growth in AI.

Between hardware and software, higher margins and greater growth still belong to the software side. He's looking more to consulting, with its higher margins.

It sank 6.6% right after earnings. The market got it wrong--this is a buy opportunity. After a lost decade, they returned to growth a few years ago. They spun off their legacy business and doubled-down on their Red Hat division, essential for AI. Rallied 34% last year, and held up even when AI corrected. YOY revenue was +2%, software +7%, consulting -2% and infrastructure -6%. Bountiful cash flow, though. Also, the reiterated full-year guidance. The quarter and business are good.

This is the next phase. We've been in this AI growth patch for a while now, which won't end, but quantum is the next level. It answers a lot of the problems that we deal with in the world such as medical issues and cybersecurity.

Problem is, not a lot of developed companies in the space. The industry is quite immature, but sometimes (if you have a longer time horizon) that's where you find opportunities for decent, long-term growth. Unlike AI, quantum needs a lot of space (perhaps it could solve office realty issues). IBM is starting to look more prominent in that space.