LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) (LVMUY-OTC)

Behemoth and benchmark in luxury goods. Stock's been weak as consumers have pulled back globally, especially in China and US. Historically over all these cycles, their brands have performed very well. ROIC is very high, and can be sustained even through weak times. Very cheap at 17x PE. Growth is probably 0% this year, but once tariffs come through it will be bullish for the global luxury market. 

With so many brands under one banner, very flexible in terms of allocating capital and marketing support to one brand or another. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.6%.

Their brand, Sephora, needs to lower prices in this economy, but they won't, and so will lose. Premiums are over in the U.S. and no longer work.

Spectacular company. Luxury brands had already taken a hit because of China. He's holding off. If we do get a recession, this will get really cheap and we've seen that before. This name is quite cyclical, but best in class.

Luxury goods face a global recession, but LVMH shares are attractive. If they go lower, he will add shares.

Diversified, high-luxury company. Toll road for high luxury, and that runs through China (1/3 of its customer base). A clean, quality, Chinese consumer proxy. More to go if you think the China stimulus is real. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 1.9%.

If the Chinese stimulus is not that effective, he's less positive on it, as that's this stock's biggest driver. It is a higher-risk proxy, but his other Top Picks are low beta to compensate.

She trimmed it a while ago. It's been terrible all year. There's no more pent-up demand. The aspirational buyers happened during the pandemic when consumers were flush. This will struggle for a little while.

Will continue to hold. Believes company is very high quality. Luxury market will always remain. High income earners will always have capital to spend on high end goods. Price "in-sensitive" shoppers will always exist. Large amount of brands that will always be strong. 

Enjoys big gross margins, but shares have fallen because consumers, notably China, have slowed down in a slow post-Covid recovery. But this is priced into the stock now. LVMH continues to grow their brands, the best in luxury. Tiffany will benefit them in the next little while. They continue to innovate.

Has a solid, long-term track record and has done well for him. Luxury goods weather recessions well; the rich get richer in recessions.

Chart shows how stock's come off. Behemoth in luxury goods. Very well positioned. Reported results a week ago, most of the stock move was already baked in. Great track record of executing through slowdowns. Trades at only 20x earnings; cheaper than COST or WMT, but with higher growth over the long term because of positioning and superb margins. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.1%.

Thinks stock can be up 20% over next 12-18 months. 

Great until middle of last year, when things turned against it. Lots of concerns about economic rebound in China, geopolitical tensions. More beta, as it's consumer discretionary. Leader in the space. Long-term secular growth, as we'll see continued growth of wealth in developing countries, demand for these products, and urbanization. 13% earnings growth.

A long-term winner. They dominate the luxury space. Will their growth slow, is the only caveat.

Really likes luxury market long term, given growth of wealth in developing countries. Struggled in back half of 2023 due to concerns about rebound in China. Now doing well, luxury market is producing resilient numbers. Still looking at 13-15% earnings growth. Smart acquirers. Clear leader in luxury consumer brands.

Worries over a weak Chinese (and global) consumer are already reflected in the share price. He owned this a long time ago and he wants to buy it back. LVMH boasts a long track record of stability and growth. Also, their brands command pricing power. Return on capital is a consistent and attractive 15%, and steadier than the luxury sector. They can grow revenues around 9%. and drive 13% EPS growth.

Worries over sluggish Chinese economy. Outperformed the MSCI World Index since 2008, but struggling the last 8-9 months. Middle class wealth will continue to grow over time. Clear leader in luxury market, fine longer term. Bouncing off long-term 200-week MA, a significant technical. Forecasting 13% EPS growth for several years.