Amy Raskin, CIO, Chevy Chase Trust LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) LVMUY-OTC PARTIAL SELL Sep 25, 2024

Diversified, high-luxury company. Toll road for high luxury, and that runs through China (1/3 of its customer base). A clean, quality, Chinese consumer proxy. More to go if you think the China stimulus is real. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 1.9%.

If the Chinese stimulus is not that effective, he's less positive on it, as that's this stock's biggest driver. It is a higher-risk proxy, but his other Top Picks are low beta to compensate.

Luxury goods face a global recession, but LVMH shares are attractive. If they go lower, he will add shares.

Spectacular company. Luxury brands had already taken a hit because of China. He's holding off. If we do get a recession, this will get really cheap and we've seen that before. This name is quite cyclical, but best in class.

Their brand, Sephora, needs to lower prices in this economy, but they won't, and so will lose. Premiums are over in the U.S. and no longer work.

Behemoth and benchmark in luxury goods. Stock's been weak as consumers have pulled back globally, especially in China and US. Historically over all these cycles, their brands have performed very well. ROIC is very high, and can be sustained even through weak times. Very cheap at 17x PE. Growth is probably 0% this year, but once tariffs come through it will be bullish for the global luxury market. 

With so many brands under one banner, very flexible in terms of allocating capital and marketing support to one brand or another. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.6%.

Luxury space has been suffering. Consumer sentiment worldwide has been crushed by Trump and by Ukraine war, but it will come back. Louis Vuitton is going to be here for the long term. Thinks it's at the bottom, he's been accumulating.

It's a sentiment stock. So once sentiment turns, the stock will pop.

Sold a while ago, mainly because rebound in Chinese market wasn't there after Covid. The slightly lower-tier names, such as TPR, have done better. The macro environment explains the difference -- consumers are being very choosy as to what they own. Given that we're probably mid-cycle at this point, not an area he's attracted to (unless the valuations got so cheap you'd need to take a look).

A bit of a stinker :(  He's averaged down along the way. Chinese demand, as well as that in other geographies, has pulled in. Recently, some data points are getting better.

European companies sold off with the tariff threats. Growth by acquisition, and they have the cash to do that. Luxury is a growth category, and while it may be slowing it's outperforming many other segments. Attractively priced. Luxury category holds up very well during recessions. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.33%.