Arc Resources Ltd (ARX-T)

Liked company at ~$15-$16, but would sell at $20.
Selling recently with expectation of recession.
Recent natural gas rally not sustainable.

Natural gas prices have been breaking out recently, and ARX has been following suit, alongside reporting strong earnings. Analyst estimates call for a drop in sales and earnings this year, but with earnings growth expected thereafter. Debt levels are low, profit margins are strong, its valuation continues to be cheap (7.1X forward earnings and 1.7X book), and its solid free cash flows are being used towards aggressive share repurchases and some debt repayments. For the first six months of 2023, ARC has returned 107% of free funds flow to shareholders, and it plans to renew its buyback plan for an additional 10% of the public float on September 1, 2023. This is substantial, given over the past 12 months the company has bought back ~10% of its public float. If natural gas prices remain strong, we continue to like this name here.
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Large portfolio of natural gas resources.
Owns shares personally.
Well run company with strong management team.
Upside with LNG contracts that are set to begin soon.
Not much downside with current natural gas prices.

Oil has not performed well this year, but ARC has done better. Efficient with a great asset base, but shares are choppy. Will try to grown their dividend 10% annually. A good name.

Current valuation very attractive.
Generating lots of cash even with low gas prices.
New project in NE BC will generate more revenues.
Good time to buy for long term holder.
Very profitable business with safe dividend yield.

High-quality company, good management, great balance sheet. Manageable debt levels, great assets. Price of natural gas has been pushed down over the winter, and we'll have to see what happens in the summer. His view on nat gas and oil is fairly constructive. Nat gas is cleaner, and will be used more in future. 

Ultra-high-quality assets. Heavy on natural gas. On free cashflow, not as compelling as other names. He can do better with a Canadian, large-cap oily name. No buy thesis. Not a lot of downside, but not a lot of upside. Not time to buy the lows on natural gas just yet.

This is the time to buy gas names, and this is one of his top ideas. Good job getting egress. Have a ways to wait before it can ship offshore through LNG. Will probably be first to the trough with TOU for contracts with LNG Canada.

In nat gas names, TOU and ARX are the top 2.

Natural gas prices have been clobbered. Prices usually decline this time of year. Surplus of nat gas. Astute management. Potential deals for LNG. Nat gas prices may not hit prior robust levels, but any boost will benefit ARX.

Doesn't forecast commodities. Nat gas is sensitive to weather. There's only so much you can store which are currently full. There was a warm winter in Europe and here, so the expected drawdown didn't happen. She doesn't invest in this space, but ARC a long time ago. Arc is a good producer, well-run.