New Flyer Industries Inc.

NFI-T

They had a long history of beating earnings and showing growth. He now has short on this as a general hedge, due to the poor price momentum. They keep missing earnings. It is trading at 12 times earnings, but it does not have a lot of cash. The payout ratio is reasonable. Yield 6%

(A Top Pick Dec 03/18, Down 19%) It is a classic value investment, down 50% from its all time high. Sales and acquisitions have slowed down but it is healthy and stable. They had some extra costs in building a new plant. And some self-inflicted supply chain problems. We'll see a big lift in 2020 because all the bad news will be out of the way in the next quarter or two. 6.5% dividend while you wait.

Toronto testing buses? The electric bus is being tested. He has no insights as to whether a contract will be signed. They do have a 3 year backlog on orders. The multiples have fallen, but earnings are holding. They had issues in a parts plant to slowed production briefly. A recent acquisition of a UK bus is innovative. It will take a long time to convince buyers on the electric bus market, but they will be the leaders. Yield 6%

(A Top Pick Oct 24/18, Down 32%) Disappointing lately with deliveries in their last report missing expectations. He's waiting for cities to replace existing buses (and ordering more from NFI). He wants to see better profitability. It'll be stalled for a while, but buying below $30 and holding should work out fine.

He used to own it and it did well for him. Their competition hurts their earnings trajectory. The last few quarters have been shaken. The balance sheet is okay, but negative earnings surprises could still happen. It's riskier now. Governments used to throw money at bus orders, but less so now.

In the last quarter, their revenues were up 1% but missed their earnings by 20%. When you are in the manufacturing sector, it's a capital intensive business. Then, you have to continue to borrow or continue to grow. Their acquisition hasn't been the best.

They are the second biggest bus manufacturer in North America. They made an excellent acquisition in Britain earlier in the year but had difficulties getting a new plant going, also. It is on his radar and once they get things going and things have turned, this will probably be a good name. He does not believe the dividend is in jeopardy.

It's down 50% since its high. They made a big acquisition and there were problems that came out. However, they have an excellent reputation for delivering public transportation. He's watching it and waiting for the base to form before entering.

He's not sure why, but the chart is in a long-term downtrend since 2018. In contrast, the TSX has gone up while NFI has gone down. A year ago, he advised taking profits. Now, sell.

Earnings in the most recent four quarters have declined. In 2021 they expect an 8% decline in earnings.

He use to to own them but sold earlier this year. The bus segment is eroding and new competitor from Europe is entering. Bus service is shrinking regionally. Transit is their area of growth and it is declining there as well. He would wait.

5.9% yield. He recently bought it. He has faith in it. It is not a cyclical stock. It's defensive and has a free cash flow. EV to EBITDA trades at 7x when it should be 10x. The price has dropped so much, so now is a good entry point.

He started purchasing in April of this year. You have to remember that there is the company and the stock market. It ran it up to $65 last year. Everyone ran to the exit with the 'R' recession word. About $30, it is tremendous value.

It's one of the cheapest TSX stocks. They made a few missteps, like order delays, but they will iron them out. They made a big UK acquisition. A good moat around it with few competitors. A very stable market for replacement buses. NFI also leads in e-buses. Trades at a low 10x PE. This will do well in the long run.