New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI-T)

Lots of supply problems, but dissipating rapidly. Quite a debt issue. Inflation caused losses on contracts. Had to issue shares. Company will survive, but how will the shareholders do? Stock's probably bottomed, but it will be a long slog.

Fantastically run business. Covid shortages hurt, weren't able to deliver buses, so inventory built up, stressed the balance sheet. Demand is great, but they can't supply. Looking to renegotiate debt. At cusp of supply challenges easing and turning around. Watch the next couple of months. Reports next week. 

Negative run. Production and operational issues. Down here, a lot of the bad news is in. Balance sheet needs a little bit of work. Strong product line. Gone from a darling to a dog, and that's when he starts looking. Still not cheap on today's valuation, as they're coming off losses. Lots of potential to drive sales, lots of demand for the product. He's taken a small position and will watch the next couple of quarters.

It made a lot of deals where buses were sold at fixed prices but its costs are higher now due to supply chain issues. The company will survive but has to re-negotiate with its banks, which is always painful. It is a good company in a bad situation, therefore look elsewhere.

On a longer term chart, you can see what's going on. A falling knife. Longer term, consistent down trend. Avoid. He loves industrials, but you want the ones with charts up and to the right. NFI is not along for the ride, and when you see that much of a divergence, it's a big warning flag. See his Top Picks.

Transit bus manufacturer.
Does not own shares in the company.
Failed to execute on production.
Balance sheet very leveraged. 

Owns shares in company.
Supply chain problems going away.
Current share price presenting good buying opportunity.
Excellent prospects for the company.
Bus demand will continue to rise.