Alexander MacDonald New Flyer Industries Inc. NFI-T DON'T BUY Nov 14, 2024

It had good news lately with better than expected results and a big increase in backlog. Margins however have been weak and need to go back to previous levels. He considers it a speculative buy.

Chart had broken out and spiked up. Next level of resistance around $23, and then $26. You can tell yourself you'll buy when it comes back 25%, but it might never do that. Likes this name. Ignore market craziness, and focus on company fundamentals.

Too volatile for her. Stay away. Ranks 1/10 on value. Upside to street's price target only 1.5%, so risk/reward is just not there.

The pandemic hurt them with supply chain troubles. It is well run and the balance sheet should get better. It is the only game in town for municipalities buying buses. He thinks the dividend gets re-instated in 2025 or 26.

He bought it below $10, but then took profits around $15. He watches it. Wants to see them deliver growth ahead.

One of the only players left for electric buses, which gives them more bargaining flexibility. Latest supply-chain issue on seats is a one-off. Backlog is bigger than ever. No dividend.

At the end of the day, being a manufacturer is quite tough. Plus, they're in Canada. Significant amount of debt. Counting on smaller levels of government making orders, but there's not a lot of $$ to go around. These buses are a big capital expenditure, and it's hard to justify that in a budget. No dividend.

Instead look for a company that produces component parts at low cost, but very important to the vehicle. That component would have an element of pricing power.

He's been adding. Their downturn lat year started with a seat supplier, then tariff worries hit. Eventually, shares will bounce. They have almost no competition in transit buses in the US. We'll see.

Struggled over the years. Good exposure to EVs. Problem is lots of leverage. As well, a bus can't be shipped if it's missing even 1 component; it has to wait. Exposed to tariffs, as it relies on US for some of those parts. 

Management's done well refinancing debt and working through problems. If problems can be resolved, could have very high performance over next few years.