Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd. (ANS-T)

(A Top Pick June 14/13. Down 27.2%.) A deal to be bought by Louisiana-Pacific (LPX-N) fell apart over regulatory concerns. Sold his holdings when the deal was first announced so he got out at $3.98. Still feels it represents very good value here.

(A Top Pick April 16/13. Down 4.31%.) Sold his holdings when there was a takeover offer.

He chose to sell this morning. Is looking at other names in the sector. Hold it but be ready to take the profits.

Eastern Canadian lumber stock. Will continue to be a major beneficiary of the housing market in the US but won’t quite have the export capability to China and other markets that the West coast guys have.

Likes it here. Likes that they don’t pay a dividend. You don’t have to worry about a distribution cut. They will survive. Could be acquired by Norboard who owns a chunk. Thinks it is worth a lot more than where it is trading.

Was one of his positions and he didn’t do that well. Exited last piece today. Putting a new plant in Grand Prairie so they can expand. Once he gets back into this sector this would be one of his top two picks.

Someone told him that the lumber stocks do go down in June, and of course it has. The reason they go down is because the signal that was out there on housing in the US and companies stocked up early. You now have to wait for them to restock.

Chart shows a great picture of higher highs and higher lows. Fairly volatile stock, but volatility on an up trending stock like this, provides opportunity rather than problems. For a new entry, it is actually in a great position right now.

Came back from the dead with the rebound of the US housing market. They are also a seller to Japan. They have a hefty debt load, however. They are cyclical and you missed a large part of the move.

Lumber companies can all be placed in one basket as they are leveraged to the lumber prices which ultimately is a leverage to new home building globally, but particularly in the US. This is a high quality company and has some interesting dynamics. There is a consolidation story that could be talked about here. Not sure this is going to happen in the near-term but it is logical for consolidation in the industry to happen. In the near-term, it is just going to bounce around with lumber prices. If you own, consider taking some profits here.

Very clean balance sheet. Well controlled and well held market that will benefit from increased US housing starts. No dividend and thinks they will initiate one. That will shoot the stock up. Should happen in the next 6-12 months.

Thinks the housing recovery in the US is far from over. Expect it will be at 1.5 million units a year before this ends. This should do relatively well in this environment.

Manufactures fiberboard for home building. This is a bet on the US housing recovery. Has had a pretty good run but he would be a buyer because he thinks the recovery is going to surprise people by its magnitude. Also, likes and owns Norbord (NBD-T) and would own both companies.

Pure OSB (oriented strand board). Turnaround story. Had a very levered balance sheet. Brookfield came in and helped them refinance their balance sheet and remains a significant shareholder, so they have good institutional support. Pure play on North American housing because they do not have any exposure to Europe. Trades at a valuation multiple discount to its peers and expects that gap will close. With Brookfield owning 50% of it, maybe there could be a catalyst that may be one of the other larger OSB companies could make a run at it.

(Market Call Minute.) Pent-up demand in housing is creating a strong demand for lumber. Pine beetles caused a problem for supply.