50% off Premium Yearly
Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd.ANS.TOBUYJun 04, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
Lumber companies can all be placed in one basket as they are leveraged to the lumber prices which ultimately is a leverage to new home building globally, but particularly in the US. This is a high quality company and has some interesting dynamics. There is a consolidation story that could be talked about here. Not sure this is going to happen in the near-term but it is logical for consolidation in the industry to happen. In the near-term, it is just going to bounce around with lumber prices. If you own, consider taking some profits here.
Pure OSB (oriented strand board). Turnaround story. Had a very levered balance sheet. Brookfield came in and helped them refinance their balance sheet and remains a significant shareholder, so they have good institutional support. Pure play on North American housing because they do not have any exposure to Europe. Trades at a valuation multiple discount to its peers and expects that gap will close. With Brookfield owning 50% of it, maybe there could be a catalyst that may be one of the other larger OSB companies could make a run at it.
Thinks the housing recovery in the US is far from over. Expect it will be at 1.5 million units a year before this ends. This should do relatively well in this environment.