A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

HOLD
Bank of Nova Scotia Preferreds: - Bank of Nova Scotia is definitely one of the better run banks. There was a bit of a dip because of credit issues because of the stock market itself.
BUY
Canadian Financials: - Chart does not look good but by far has done better than any of the other international and US banks. Tainted by the same brush but they are quite a bit better run. Economy is weaker. No M&A. Dividends and valuations will hold them up so you can own them now and collect the dividends while you wait. Expect they will start to go up later in the year.
BUY
Bell Canada bonds 2016 and 2017:- Had avoided these for quite awhile but have now purchased them. About an 8% return, which is 450 over Government of Canada. If the Bell (BCE-T) deal doesn't go through the bonds will rally tremendously. If it does go through, the bonds will be soft and will sell off a little bit. Good risk/reward.
TOP PICK
National Bank 4.7% F/F Bond maturing Nov 2/20. In the last 8 years, he has never seen spreads and pick up of yields in financials (like this?). A lot of value in the corporate bond space.
COMMENT
Sprott IPO: - Sprott has done everything correct and have also been correct on their predictions of the price of gold. Have a demonstrated track record of delivery. Depends on the price you have to pay.
COMMENT
Natural Gas: - LNG imports have gone down 80% in one year, so he is very bullish on natural gas. This is the shoulder season right now, so it is a good time to Buy. A lot of stocks might be weak over the next few weeks and this is when he would be looking to buy these. Could see it getting back up to the $12 range.
COMMENT
Oil: - Generally the oil stocks in Canada have been impacted by the general negativity of the market. Not reflecting the potential that, even prices significantly lower than $112, would give to their earnings and cash flow and ultimately share prices.
COMMENT
Oil: -- He has been using a very wide range for the price of oil, $70-$100. At the upper end, which is where we are now, you are discounting some of the greater risks. However, looking at the cost of getting oil out of the ground and getting a decent return, $70 is a justified lower end. Wouldn't be surprised to see some weakness in oil prices. That would be the time to start picking up some oil companies.
HOLD
Natural Gas: - The shoulder season would normally give a back off in prices. However, he is seeing many stocks that are trading at 2X or 3X cash flow, and should be trading at 6X cash flow. Never got the bounce they should have. Would hold your positions and not try to play games.
COMMENT
US Financials: - He is just writing a newsletter on this subject and it can be accessed at http://www.stockchase.com/www.ackerfinley.com for information. There are a lot of distressed US financials with an amazing amount of small banks that have been crushed and looked like very good Buys.
COMMENT
Gold: - If you are in gold stocks, you are playing with fire. They are so overvalued that it boggles his mind. It's like uranium was over a year ago where everybody was jumping in. He has only one gold stock left in his portfolio, Yamana (YRI-T). He has owned quite a few gold stocks and has made money on them.
COMMENT
Silver: - Costs to mine gold and silver are going up exponentially. This is a true definition of inflation. Only looks for mispriced assets.
COMMENT
Oil: - Normally in Canada, the sweet spot is from January until the 1st couple of weeks in June. The TSE Oil Index from the middle of January has already gone up 23%, so the easy money has been made.
COMMENT
S&P 500: - Has a nice base pattern being built over the last 3 months. If it is truly a base building pattern, you should expect to see the index go up to around the $1,450 level, which would take it to its 200 day moving average. Probably around June.
WAIT
Gold - Jr Producers and Exploration: - Gold stocks are in an upward trend with the price of gold. The chart on gold shows the upward trend has been broken indicating a little bit of concern. When it gets back down to about the $850 level you could start considering buying gold and gold stocks. Historically, seasonality for gold and gold stocks has been the end of July to the end of October. As you get into the summer, you will have seen the seniors and intermediate stocks move. The next level to go will be the juniors.
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