Natural Gas: - Historically ratio of 1000 BTUs to oil is 6 to 8. With oil at $100, natural gas should be at $12, but he doesn't think this will happen. This is the shoulder season for natural gas so expect some price weakness. Looking out 2 to 3 years he is looking at Encana (ECA-T) for large caps and Cathedral Energy (CET.UN-T) and Pason Systems (PSI-T) in mid-caps.
Fertilizer Stocks: - There is a generational change in the dietary habits of people in the emerging nations. As wealth increases, they move from a vegetarian rice-based diet to higher proteins, which increases the demand for fertilizers/seeds. Using a 5-year view and these stocks are great Buys. He recently sold off many of his agricultural stocks because he was not sure of the market and wanted to maintain his client's capital. Thinks he will be back in the near future. Favourites are Agriun (AGU-T), Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS-N) in that order.
Bond ETFs are probably one of the best areas to look at exchange traded funds. You get the benefit of institutional pricing and very low cost MER’s. There has been a big run-up in treasury securities because of a flight to safety, so yields today are very low. He would look at high-quality government bond ETF and then add to that 30%-40% of with I-shares corporate bond portfolio.
Copper- Has gone through a great upswing, it’s making a great move. Copper stocks are not as expensive as they were relative to the copper price 6-7 months ago. Would take profits from the junior companies and stay with the senior cash generators.
Bear Sterns Bonds- There’s a chance you wont be able to get your cash out. If the takeover occurs they can’t allow the company to go into default. You might be paid off. It would be high risk capital to own any bonds in the U.S financials.
Man AHL Diversified Fund- One of the biggest hedge fund companies in the world, they manage about $70 billion. There is no correlation in their top fund to the world market, which means it’s a good addition. There up over 25% this month.
Risky Hedge Funds- Long, short equity strategies never really have any problems. The more volatile the underlying security, the less leverage you have to use. If you have a low volatility strategy, you will have to leverage it up very high (30:1). Leverage hurts you when liquidity dries up.
Sprott Hedge 2- Its manager is the biggest Bear in Canada. If financials continue to get hit hard and gold and energy do well, this fund will be up a lot.
Salida Multi-Strategy- An aggressively run fund. They can be very long to the market, they can be short or they can pull off the risk very fast. Volatility has increased with this product quite a bit. Their performance is still great. They’ve developed a good track record.
The difference between a hedge fund and an ETF- An ETF tracks an index wither up or down, not a lot of active management. A hedge fund wants to take away the market risk, they pick their own stocks, which takes away/add risks. They may short an ETF against the hedge fund.
A Hedge Fund Portfolio- The general number is 10-15% of portfolio in Hedge Funds. A 20% holding can actually decrease the volatility in your portfolio. Typically you should stick with a hedge fund for quite a while.
Enel Societa Per Azioni- (Top pick, March 28, 2007. unchanged) An Italian utility company. Not exciting here, it’s chugging along. A good yield. Possibly a good source of cash down the road.