A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

BUY
Platinum: Seasonal strength is from January to May each year. Significantly outperforming gold at this time. Auto sales will have an effect. Auto sales in Germany rose 22% in January. India 20% in February. China had an all-time high in January.
BUY
Oil: Crude broke a short-term resistance level March 6 and moved to a 6 week high. Should move higher between now and the end of May. On a technical basis the key level is just over $50 and if it breaks that it completes a gorgeous reversal pattern and he could easily see a technical target of $65.
TOP PICK
Lafarge North America 10.93% Bond due July 15, 2016. Manufactures cement so a good play on infrastructure.
BUY
COMMENT
Oil: He models oil prices and his model shows $72. This is based on fundamental factors such as global economic growth, inventory levels, storage, etc. Also most analysts think oil, long term, will go higher than where it is. Investors should slowly build positions in the better names.
COMMENT
Tax Fee Savings Accounts: 3 names in oil/gas that he would invest in for a 3 to 5 year period are Suncor (SU-T), Encana (ECA-T) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). Likes CNQ for its leverage, Suncor for the oil sands and Encana because it is a benchmark company.
DON'T BUY
Q: Should I borrow to invest in dividend-paying vehicles? A: Although he himself has done it in the past, it has never worked out and he has never seen it work out. Specifically, you are borrowing short to invest long.
COMMENT
Cdn$: A tough one to call. Cdn$ has been weak because the US$, relevant to the rest of the world, has been so egregiously strong. No fundamental reason why the US$ is as strong as it is but is still being considered as the world's reserve currency. Cdn$ will ultimately be tied to energy prices.
COMMENT
Market: His signals are telling him that it is only 1%-2% for the TSX to have another major down leg.
COMMENT
Energy: Oil/gas index has actually reached about a 40-year average low, the low point in which the index has staged 2 or 3 really good bull markets. He is watching the entire oil complex with a warm feeling towards that area.
COMMENT
ETF’s: She thinks all providers are fine but her instinct would be to diversify between them. She would discourage using the levered ones that give you 2X, 3X or 4X the exposure, which is a very risky strategy.
COMMENT
Base Metals: Suspects that there will be at least one more ugly bout of bad economic news and that all of the base metal charts will drop lower. Doesn't think all the bad news is out in the world economy. Credit markets are broken and that is of critical importance to mining companies.
COMMENT
Silver: A very interesting but extraordinarily volatile market. Not for the faint of heart. He is a mild bull.
COMMENT
Gold: Probably range bound until we have another seismic event that scares the world. Next event could be the collapse of European banks. He is worried about sovereign risk, a default of a European nation. That could push gold through its former high.
COMMENT
Oil: This is the commodity that he is most bullish on. There is a cap on the supply side of oil. There will be demand destruction because of the lower GDP but sees a drastic stimulus from lower gasoline prices. He expects to see oil doubling in the next 12 months.
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