What we have seen over the last two months is a change in the psychology. We are not seeing stocks fall like dominos. People are building some confidence. Thinks manufacturers’ inventories have bottomed out and production will have to resume.
Entire auto industry is a hold until the end of June. Then we will know what shape the companies are in. Need to reset their relationships with their unions. Ford has family ownership.
Always had the problem of putting together all there pieces. Can’t short the common stock. Is a prime candidate for a massive re-organization, possibly breaking it up.
Agricultural chemicals and seeds are very well placed in the world economy. Will come back well when the economy recovers. Biggest risk would be trade barriers.
Short and long term problems in industry will all work out. Not sure that domestic manufacturers will be able to satisfy the demand. Toyota is pretty well positioned. Risk is that it is too big. One of the others could come in and undercut them.
As inventories bottom, there will be a sharp increase in transportation. This is the exclusive carrier out of Mexico. A Canadian railroad may want to buy one of the US ones.
Political environment for health insurers is going to be very clouded. Insurance companies are going to be the whipping boys for the reforms that are going to come. They are going to be tough.
Feels that the market is totally in the hands of the US Congress. Feels that the money will be provided to the big three automakers, but there will be conditions, restrictions and performance goals. They need conditions that will let them compete. Feels government caused the problems that they have today and they have to fix it. In favour of the new administration because it will boost confidence in the economy. But there may be problems down the road for Canadians as some of the accords may not be followed.
Protectionism is a real risk.
Problem is that the banks are not lending, we need to get the economy going.
Best defensive stock you can find. One of the 2 stocks up in Dow Jones over the last two years. Positioned to gain market share. Would buy for a defensive portfolio. They have control of the situation. Is considering buying.