A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Buying/Selling, especially High beta stocks. MACD or Point and Figure Chart? MACD is simply 2 moving averages. If you are going to MACD look for divergence. If price is going down and MACD gives you a low and the stock gives you a lower low and the MACD gives a higher low, that’s when you act. Point and Figures are basically reversal charts. The time (Y) axis is not linear. Look at your Point and Figure and if it is trending up you stay with it. Stay away if it trends down.

Not bearish on any commodities. Natural gas has been a laggard but thinks the potential is there for a surprise on the upside. From a long-term perspective, uranium is reasonable but the one caveat is that you need to see how the Japanese situation unfolds. If everything is OK, it could be positive for uranium.

Still not back to the indexes where the market was in 2007 so no surprise that the market really moved between August and February before the mini-correction in March. Hasn’t happened since 1948and 1982 when there where huge market rallies. Bulls will say that it is the 3rd year of the presidential cycle and earnings are still growing to the degree that if earnings are going up faster than prices, then obviously P/E multiples are coming down to make it a decent market for growth. On the flip side there are all the macro economic fears that Bears will put on for European debt issues, Japan’s nuclear disaster and the US housing market. If we get inflation or deflation you should have something to act as an insurance policy in your portfolio.

Market: It’s a very stock specific market. Market was very resilient in rallying after the March pull back. Likes emerging markets, aging demographics and tech stocks. It’s predicated on prospective earnings and current stock valuation. Tech companies are generally the most global of US companies.

Market: He looks for lower volatility. Thinks we will continue having a pretty good first half of the year. Thinks that while jobs are coming back into the system, they are not coming back in a big enough way to allow companies to pass price increases through to cover rising input and labour costs that are rising. Thinks we will have a marked slowing in corporate earnings growth. Vast majority of population does not have the discretionary cash flow because of higher oil prices.

Gold. Not a gold bug but if there is ever a time to hold gold, this may well be it. Recently governments have started to aggressively print money. (See Top Picks.)

Shorting Bonds. Good strategy? In Canada you would look at HBP US 30 Year Bond Bear+ ETF (HTD-T). This is effectively creating Short exposures to instruments that pay coupons so you have to cover them. You would hold this for a relatively short period of time.

Market: The pullback we have seen is a buying opportunity. This market will go back to its old pre-2008 highs within the year. We’ve come through the downturn of the economy pretty well. Employment is slowly getting better. Company confidence is slowly getting better. Companies have built up more cash than before the peak. Now you will see expansion and with that comes more employment. It wasn’t even a recession; it was a financial system on the verge of collapse. There is a lot of money on the sidelines. Doesn’t think you will see QE III. The market doesn’t need it. When QE II ends, you will be surprised how little the market reacts. Likes the cyclicals, base metals, resource, coal, iron ore, everything you send to the emerging markets, industrials in the US, technology looks cheap. Light on consumer areas, real estate, retail, financials.

Real Return Bonds: Are yielding about 1% above inflation. Not a trading security. These work inversely with the regular bond market.

Market: Doesn’t like the looks of the equity markets at present. Way too much government debt, rising inflation, rising interest rates. The only one who benefits from market decline is the one who holds cash. He is at 2/3rds. International: Europe is a basket case, he is predicting there is more pain before things right themselves. Gold: It is at an all time high and there is so much hedge fund money chasing gold that it is not the place you want to be. Oil: Tones of speculation, but if Libya gets worse, there would be a further rise in oil prices, but that would hurt the consumer, who would have less cash to spend elsewhere.

Market: This pull back has to go a few more weeks. This correction looks a lot like what we did in November. It didn’t mater what triggered it, Japan, middle east, etc. Natural disasters don’t have a lasting impact. When the pullback completes, metals, mining, a little health care, and technology will do well.

Market: Long and short strategies reduce market volatility. Typically he targets 10-15% compounded returns. He is a value investor.

Natural Gas: Significant supply increase recently. Price spiked because of Japan’s Nuclear issues.

Oil: Bullish on the price of oil long term. Oil fields globally are drying up. You could argue a disaster/war premium built in. He tries to find stronger producers that would make a lot of money even at lower prices, e.g. Painted Pony.

Market: There’s always something going on in the world. He prefers companies that can handle what’s going on in the world. Some might move sideways for a while, but some people forget that the stock market does not follow the economy as much as people think and people get caught up in one bad number. We mo go through some time with more volatility and the market moving sideways. There is an underlying increase in inflation but he does not believe it will increase to 6-7%. The Fed is trying to move expectations of inflation up. His view is that short term, rates will go up but still remain relatively low. We are at historically low rates.