A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Technology. Cisco (CSCO-Q) is one of the larger technology companies and the chart shows a bottoming out. Seeing some pausing at a resistance level and is going contrary to the markets.
COMMENT
US homebuilders. KB Home (KBH-N) is showing at bit of an uptick. This was a leading indicator. Homebuilders started dropping before the rest of the market in the mid-2000 range. There is a possibility that we'll see these leading stocks carrying the rest of the markets.
COMMENT
Gold. Charts are showing a wedge pattern, which indicates volatility is going down. This is encouraging but he doesn't like gold because it is so volatile. You want to make sure it gets above the 1800 point with some positive days following that.
COMMENT

Options. If you write them every month and they expire on Saturday, do you wait until Monday to write a new option? If he knows he is not going to be exercised by the last hour on Friday, he will rewrite on Friday because he'd rather pick up those extra 2 days of option premiums over the weekend. If there is any question, he’ll wait and rewrite on Monday.

COMMENT

Options. If you either don't get Put or Called or you do, do you go back to the same stock? There are a number of stocks that he likes and he can see where the earnings momentum is, and he knows what the option premiums are, he tries to write them when they are down. He won't always stick to the same name.

COMMENT

Writing a covered call on a stock where you are underwater 10%, would you go more than one month in order to make some decent premium? Never think about getting even. If you lost 10%, you have lost 10%. Every position, think about it as though you just bought it.

DON'T BUY

Natural gas? Doesn't like natural gas because there is too much of it. With all the new finds in shale gas, it is great for us because maybe we become energy independent.

DON'T BUY

Writing covered calls and writing puts simultaneously on bank stocks during high volatility times such as 2009? Doesn't like this strategy because you expose yourself to a massive amount of downside risk. This means you are calling the market.

COMMENT
Oil. Stocks have been lagging tremendously. Index is down 16% year to date while oil is up 8%. Looking into December and into 2012, the energy sector probably has the strongest fundamentals of any sector. Emerging economic oil demand continues to be exceptionally strong and will continue to be so.
COMMENT
Energy infrastructure assets. This is his number one theme that he is focusing on. Pipelines, gas processors, transmission companies, truckers etc. That whole space is benefiting from a rise in production and he doesn't see any sign of that changing anytime soon.
N/A
Market: S&P downgraded the debt of a number of US banks. Europe needs all the hope they can get. The US is in better shape than 2008 even if not as good as Canada. Portfolios are pretty defensive and have 12-13% cash. He has never seen the volatility we have now in the past. He is using the volatility to do some buying. Is looking at things that have economic sensitivity right now.
COMMENT
Canadian Banks and CMHC mortgages: Have a huge exposure to Canadian mortgage market, but not as much as CMHC, which takes on most of the risk. He is upset that CMHC is so loose in how they let people et mortgages.
COMMENT
Convertible bonds seem to have a lot of turmoil in the last while versus straight bonds? Key to convertibles is the underlying company. When the equity price sinks, bonds start to acquire their basic intrinsic value and they lose their conversion value. In markets like this, the bid/ask spread becomes wider. Straight bonds have been rallying as government yields have been falling.
COMMENT
When a bond matures, what value is returned to the holder? Original par value? That is correct. At maturity you get 2 payments. The principal value plus the final interest payment. If you paid a premium, you would have got an income stream that was higher than you would have received with a par bond.
PAST TOP PICK

(ATop Pick Feb 3/11. Up 12.50%.) Short the 10-Year 2.625% US Treasury bonds due Nov 15/20. He had thought he had seen the lows in treasury yields.

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