Brad WillockTechnology Select Sector SPDR FundXLKPAST TOP PICKMar 22, 2007

Good, but sort of like a mutual fund -- good when the market goes up, but you need a technology hedge fund manager to protect your unrealized gains when the market starts to crater (as it is now). On the other hand, Warren Buffett advised his wife, when he dies, to put her $$ in the S&P 500.

Lots of volatility out there, and that makes for better opportunities.

The question was on his suggestion for an ETF in the technology sector. He is not a big proponent of the tech sector but two ETF's that come to mind are VGT and XLK which is longer standing. He advises caution as to how much tech you have in your portfolio and is seeing a rotation out of tech which is now in the ninth position out of 11 in sectors.

Sector's done extremely well, despite a small blip in August. It's basically sucking the air out of everything else right now. 'Tis the season when technology does quite well. Still momentum here. Earnings should be interesting; once we get past that without any surprises (which he's not expecting), thinks tech will continue to do well.

This week, the market nearly broke below all key support levels, including the XLK (tech index). It looks very negative now, showing a sell signal. Inskip fears XLK could fall to $225, the next floor of support and the 26-week moving average. Bearish.

Sector is performing well. Small pullback from October to November, which is good as it sets up a rally. Tech starts to perform well at this time of year into January, seeing some momentum, can do well for the next few months. Rising bottoms, a very positive pattern. Breaking out from the previous level. That all shows an ascending triangle.

A tech ETF and a good way to play tech. This has done well this year. With earnings now, this could do even better. We're entering strong seasonality for tech which could boost the wider market. Keep an eye on Apple's earnings on Thursday. Tech is good, at least short term.

The tech sector is trading at 28x forward PE, back to the pre-Covid peak. Tech trades at a 45% premium to the overall market while the 10-year average is 9% premium. During the tech bubble it was a 53% premium. He gets the AI enthusiasm, but doesn't understand the tech disconnect from higher rates. The Fed has said it will increase rates. Tech stocks are expensive. Tech outflows have been the highest in the past 10 weeks. We'll test 4,200 on the S&P and could run further if it breaks above that. If it doesn't, we'll see.

QQQ vs XLK? XLK has a large position in MSFT and AAPL, whereas the QQQ is more diversified. To broaden the exposure he might add KWEB that adds exposure into the Asian marketplace, including BABA. He thinks these holdings will continue to crush things.