Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI)

SPDR Technology (XLK-N) or SPDR Industrial (XLI-N)? If you are going to invest primarily in seasonals, you want to be more into industrials rather than technology. Industrials enter this next leg of period of seasonal strength from about mid January all the way to May. Charts are showing higher highs and higher lows. His preference would be this one.

(A Top Pick Oct 28/14. Up 5.75%.) Picked this up Oct 27 and just recently sold it, because the industrial sector can have a little bit of weakness in January. However, it has another seasonal period coming up Jan 23 to May 5.

This never really blows away the S&P 500, but it beats it on enough of a basis that it makes sense to do a trade. Typically you would get in now and hold it until at least the end of the year. From October 28th to the end of the year, it is up about 88% of the time, and has produced a 6% average return from 1990 to 2013.

(Top Pick Oct 25/13, Up 5.80%) Does well from Oct until end of December and then end of Jan until May. He exited at end of December. Back in Now.

(A Top Pick Nov 18/13. Up 3.69%.) Period of seasonal strength for industrials runs from October 28 to May 5. With materials, there can be a bit of volatility so he has stepped out of this right now. Looking to get back in more towards February. February to May would be the next seasonal run.

US industrials ETF? This is the one he would recommend.

The strongest sector in the US for the month of December is the industrial sector. Seasonality is from October 28 to the end of December, takes a bit of a break in January and then takes off again from February to May. Technically, the chart shows that it is currently outperforming the market, trending higher and above its 20 day moving average.

His Top Picks are not “Buy & Holds”. They are Seasonal Picks so there is an exit strategy. Industrials tend to gain between October 28 and May 5th generally. There is a weak period in January. This has had an average gain of 13% over the past 20 years. Technicals are positive with higher highs and higher lows and above major moving averages.

Industrial seasonals basically are very similar to the S&P 500. Has the same seasonal starts, runs into the end of the year and then has another seasonal from January into April. Basically for the next 5 months, it tends to outperform.

[XLI-N or XLF-N] It depends on what happens with QE and bank regulations. Industrials should have less volatility than financials over 1 year. Over 5 years financials should do better.

Doesn’t know if he cares for this ETF so much (See Top Picks) but loves the sector. This one has about 24% aerospace and defence which is a pretty heavy weighting. It is about 12%-4.5% G General Electric (GE-N).

(Top Pick Mar 18/13, Up 3.52%)

It broke a 2-year wall of resistance earlier this year. It is having a little area of consolidation, which is normal. Doesn’t look bad.

(A Top Pick Oct 31/12. Up 13.97%.) Did extremely well in October, November, December and into January. It was a strong market and participated in that.

Sweet spot started a week ago – beginning of March until May, average gain is about 6%. Holding above major moving averages. The numbers have backed the trend recently.