Opinions
David Fingold
United States Steel
X-N
COMMENT
Nov 23, 2016
$33.060
Stock price when the opinion was issued
steel
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COMMENT
This is very whippy, and he wouldn’t want you to be overly focused and concentrated in such an idiosyncratic name. Steel names are not his favourite. The chart indicates it has been very challenged. Fundamentally, they have had some earnings misses and are more often missing then they are hitting. There are much greener pastures elsewhere.
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There is very limited upside to US Steel selling prices before imports can come in. In order to call for higher levels, one has to assume that there will be draconian trade barriers put in place, which is possible. There are other steel stocks to choose from. The only argument that would make this company the preferable trade, is if the oil country tubular goods market does much better than other end uses. This company, unlike other producers, has a significant exposure to oil country tubular goods. He thinks the market is pricing in some combination of protectionist measures, and possibly some incentives for domestic oil production. As a value investor, a lot of things have to go right before he invests in this.