Western Union Co.WUDON'T BUYMar 30, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 08, 2026. Market Open.
One reason he chose this is because of the dividend (as a Canadian, best to hold in an RRSP). Stock's really cheap at ~5x PE. Analysts are forecasting ROE of 43%.
There are concerns about it, or the stock wouldn't be down where it is. One of those concerns is that AI companies will cut its grass ;) and reduce profitability. That overlooks the fact that WU is also using AI. As long as it holds in here, upside potential is 200%. Yield is 10.45%.
It reported this week. It pays almost a 7% dividend. Covid crushed cross-border money transfers and are facing serious competition from cryptos. WU has brought in a new CEO and sold off business. Also, they're moving into digital banking services and using their huge network of stores to give them an edge. Shares are up 26% in the past year. They target 2% revenue growth by 2025 and around 5% earnings growth. Modest, but numbers are not shrinking anymore. They just reported their 5th straight solid/good quarter. 2024 will be an up year and he expects shares to grind higher. The balance sheet is fine. You can buy it here, but he's not excited by it like AmEx.
Always has cheap valuations because people compare it to a buggy whip manufacturer and that it will be obliterated by new forms of technology. Their clients are a great number of people who do not have banking services so there will always be a need for this company. Feels there is some value in this one.
A global franchise which allows you to send money. Typically it is often used by new citizens in a country where they want to mail money back home. An intriguing story because it has a relatively low multiple and a high free cash flow but has proven to be a difficult place to be as a stock. He is concerned with the sustainability of its margins. When they lowered their earnings guidance last fall, and missed their earnings by a small amount, the stock dropped 30%. That risk profile is too high for him.
Taking a hard look at this. On his radar screens. Took a sickening fall a few months ago when they said they were charging way too much for the money transfers and were losing market share. Now they are right in line with the competitors. A lot of competition, which is the big risk. Valuation is cheap. Nice dividend. Wouldn’t be too concerned about the balance sheet because they don’t need a lot of cash to run the business.
It lacks the earnings power to drive shares higher.