Stockchase Opinions

David BaskinVincor International Ltd.VN.TOWEAK BUYOct 28, 2003

Good company and the stock has done reasonably well. Aging demographics help the wine industry. Stronger Cdn$ creates cheaper imports. Can't see it taking off like a rocket, but you won't get hurt with it.
$26.18

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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DON'T BUY
Just avoided a hostile take over. Wouldn’t be surprised if they come back with another offer. Feels Vincor is on the weak side on ROE at 7.5%.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 8/05. Up 47%.) Had a couple of bad quarters, because there was too much Australian red wine about, but that is temporary. Still likes.
HOLD
A bid of $31 has been made to acquire this company. This may be increased by $1/2.
SELL
There is a takeover offer by Constellation (STZ-N). Sold his holdings last week.
BUY
Reported 2 disappointing quarters in a row. Now in buying range and yet the market has it in the penalty box. Their problem is an overseas one and appears to be a one time problem. Trading at under 15 X which is a good price.
BUY
Has fallen 35% this year. Had a weaker quarter than expected because of the excess wine production in Australia. The 6th biggest wine producer in North America. Acquired a UK winery which gave them the biggest distribution of South African wines in the UK and they can distribute their North American wines through there. Good price.
WAIT
An exceedingly well run company. Now a global player, probably #7 in the world. Moved into the Australian market where there is a glut of red grapes. This is driving down prices. A good long term stock to have. It'll either gorw by buying more wineries around the world or will sell to one of the bigger guys. Let it settle down.
DON'T BUY
Have suffered on the earnings side so the stock took a drop. There's a glut of wine around the world. Feels that they would like to be taken out by someone. Would consider buying if it dropped further.
TOP PICK
2nd quarter numbers were disappointing, so took a big drop. It's the 7th largest North American wine producer. Also strong globally. Might taken out.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 23/04. Down 10%.) Still thinks longer term it is a good solid company. Struggling against the wine glut in Australia where wine prices have been supressed. They own some wineries in Australia.
TOP PICK
This market is consolidating. In the end there will be 3, 4 maybe 5 global players and Vincor may be one of them or may be consolidated. Trading around 8/9 X operating cash flow and there are acquisitions taking place at around 15 X.
HOLD
Has been a growth by acquisition company. The real question is their problems with their Australian acquisitions. The wine market there has not turned into as profitable an area as would be hoped. Can this be turned around? The jury is out.
BUY
Spirits and wines sector is the consistant growth story. Brewers have had big problems. Likes it a great deal.
BUY
Probably has some short term downside still. Analysts following have taken their numbers down which has created some selling. Last 3 quarters in a row they've missed their numbers. Distribution costs have gone higher. Likes it longer term and would be adding on this weakness. Operating at about 9/10 X cash flows.
BUY
Nesbitt Burns has substantially reduced this year's earnings based on a more difficult period of integration of Western Wines, so the stock dropped. Should do well and will be one of the world's leading wine producers and distributors.