Gavin Graham Vincor International Ltd. VN-T BUY Sep 06, 2005

Has fallen 35% this year. Had a weaker quarter than expected because of the excess wine production in Australia. The 6th biggest wine producer in North America. Acquired a UK winery which gave them the biggest distribution of South African wines in the UK and they can distribute their North American wines through there. Good price.

Gavin Graham

Owned

Unlock Rating

$22.700

Stock price when the opinion was issued

breweries beverages

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 23/04. Down 10%.) Still thinks longer term it is a good solid company. Struggling against the wine glut in Australia where wine prices have been supressed. They own some wineries in Australia.

TOP PICK

2nd quarter numbers were disappointing, so took a big drop. It's the 7th largest North American wine producer. Also strong globally. Might taken out.

DON'T BUY

Have suffered on the earnings side so the stock took a drop. There's a glut of wine around the world. Feels that they would like to be taken out by someone. Would consider buying if it dropped further.

WAIT

An exceedingly well run company. Now a global player, probably #7 in the world. Moved into the Australian market where there is a glut of red grapes. This is driving down prices. A good long term stock to have. It'll either gorw by buying more wineries around the world or will sell to one of the bigger guys. Let it settle down.

BUY

Reported 2 disappointing quarters in a row. Now in buying range and yet the market has it in the penalty box. Their problem is an overseas one and appears to be a one time problem. Trading at under 15 X which is a good price.

SELL

There is a takeover offer by Constellation (STZ-N). Sold his holdings last week.

HOLD

A bid of $31 has been made to acquire this company. This may be increased by $1/2.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 8/05. Up 47%.) Had a couple of bad quarters, because there was too much Australian red wine about, but that is temporary. Still likes.

DON'T BUY

Just avoided a hostile take over. Wouldn’t be surprised if they come back with another offer. Feels Vincor is on the weak side on ROE at 7.5%.

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Gavin Graham Vincor International Ltd. VN-T BUY Sep 06, 2005

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