Opinions
Eric Nuttall
Valero Energy Corp
VLO-N
DON'T BUY
Aug 23, 2023
$129.300
Stock price when the opinion was issued
integrated oils
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HOLD
They just reported this morning and they were strong. They benefit from increased crude demand from gasoline as public transportation is out of demand. They have one of the best refinery complexes. He has held it before. He thinks it is a well run company but is a bet on crude and gasoline.
integrated oils
BUY
Inflation-protection trades: energy (and materials). Both cyclical sectors are positively correlated to inflation. She also likes Martin Marietta given its heavy business in residential and non-res construction and a tailwind from Dems and Republicans to fix bridges and ports during supply-chain issues. Financials: JPM she likes, though they had a disappointing recent earnings, they do have a multi-faceted business. For more cyclicals, consider EM, namely IEMG.
integrated oils
DON'T BUY
Trades at a low PE, but is a value trap and is highly cyclical. Their EPS leapt from $9.16 in 20167 to -$3.50 in 2020 to $29.11 last year! Up, down and up big. Has had a a partial share buyback. Today, share are hitting 5-year highs. However, future 2025 EPS estimates are sliding to less than half of 2022's peaks, because of less demand for oil and gas. Also, the existential long-term obstacle are EV's. Consider the massive clean-energy incentives in Biden's 2022 IRA. It's possible earnings have already peaked--big warning.
integrated oils
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Bearish on refineries at large. More capacity coming on line globally, namely Nigeria and Mexico. Medium-term outlook is not phenomenal.