Stockchase Opinions

Robert Lauzon Vermilion Energy Inc VET-T PARTIAL SELL Nov 01, 2016

This has been a core holding in his energy portfolio for many years. One of the highest yielding oil weighted stocks on the TSX. You can still get a 4%+ yield on it. He bought a lot of this at around $40. It is going to be tough for it to get through $60 anytime soon, so you might want to take a tiny bit off the table if you’ve had a nice run.

$54.350

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

WEAK BUY

Not his favourite in energy. If it break its 200-day moving average it will move even higher though. But if fundamentals continue to do well, so will VET. The stock is well-positioned.

DON'T BUY

The biggest knock is that they have 5 operations round the world when they need focus. It remains challenged and deserves to trade at a discount. Look elsewhere for less risk and more reward.

DON'T BUY

Too much noise. A tax-loss candidate. Don't buy. The warm winter meant weak heating demand. Also, their assets are too scattered, lacking focus, while the dividend isn't attractive enough. Some flagship assets will decline. It's a value trap.

SELL

Sell it. Value trap. Too many assets, not enough geographical concentration. The free cashflow yield that everyone's fallen in love with rolls off significantly in 2 years.

DON'T BUY

Looking at 2026, they're almost negative free cashflow because they're benefiting from European gas hedges that are about to roll off.

DON'T BUY

Too geographically exposed. Inventory light. Hedge on gas about to expire. Not a good option for investors. 

DON'T BUY

Owns shares, and has suffered share price depreciation. Europe pricing very hard on business. Company is going to have to re-evaluate Europe assets. Better options in the energy sector for investors. 

BUY

Owns shares. Believes company has a lot of potential. European gas prices have been low, but still relatively strong. Largest independent gas producer in all of Europe. Very good shareholder discipline - has paid lots of dividends. Good capital allocation. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 15/24, Down 37%)

Lately they've had success in exploration in Germany, but near-term capex to exploit that is questionable. Are hard hit, now trading at half their book value. Are paying a near-6% dividend. He's held on. He may use VET as a source of funds, but otherwise won't sell it.

SELL

If you own, sell it and buy names like WCP, which pays a higher dividend.  VET's bases are scattered around the world. VET poorly executes.