Opinions The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong
Visa Inc.VTOP PICKFeb 01, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 25, 2026. Market Open.
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You'd have to go back a very long time to find his firm holding MA. Owned V for a long time, mainly on the valuation differential. MA has always been 4-6 multiple points higher. Visa is better value. Likes the space.
V might be stronger on the debit card side, which is growing at a faster rate than the credit side. Likes management. PE in the 20s, a discount to normalized multiples. Consistent, predictable. Earnings continue to do well. Nice hedge to a lot of companies that are in the news.
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Premium contentWith quarterly transactions setting a record $4 trillion, we reiterate V as a TOP PICK. Revenues in advisory and security services grew 34% -- showing more runway for growth. It trades at 32x earnings and supports a robust 60% ROE. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $335) to $350, looking to achieve $440 -- 18% potential upside. Yield 0.7%
(Analysts’ price target is $423.40)
Owned for about a decade. Trimmed for the first time ever last year, as it got above risk thresholds. Low double-digit growth metrics. When it's on sale, you should buy it.
Darren SissonsPremium contentPremium contentWe reiterate V as a TOP PICK. The company is seeking a stablecoin partner to expand its reach globally furthering its market depth. Recently reported earnings showed growing cash reserves as shares are aggressively bought back and debt retired. We continue to recommend a stop at $325, looking to achieve $432 - upside potential of 18%. Yield 0.7%
(Analysts’ price target is $420.14)
Premium contentFollowing recently reported earnings, we reiterate V as a TOP PICK. Consumers are spending and at higher rates than analysts expect -- including growth in travel spending despite geopolitical uncertainty. Cash reserves are growing as shares are aggressively bought back albeit with a slight increase in debt (not an issue as free cash flow is at five year highs). It trades at 29x earnings and supports an amazing 66% ROE and annual dividend growth has exceeded 15% over the past five years. We continue to recommend a stop at $325, looking to achieve $430 -- upside potential of 18%. Yield 0.7%
(Analysts’ price target is $404.18)Visa and Mastercard have been treading water the past year because the market has been fixated on AI, but that money has been rotating out of AI into places like credit cards. The two companies have some of the best business models, big moats and trading at attractive PEs, though neither are at decades-long low PEs. Visa's layoff of 7% of workforce is good for the stock. Probably AI is making Visa more productive.
One of the highest-quality names he owns. Share price has done nothing over 12 months, but business continues to enjoy 10% growth. Its network isn't going away anytime soon.
Martin Cobb, ASIPMastercard and Visa have been weak because cash-to-card conversion has historically been the easiest thing for them to do but is now over. Value-added services are instead driving more growth. Agentic AI traffic is about to go parabolic, so can the cards play the role of authentication layer? He thinks so, and they should. Stablecoins and peer-to-peer transactions are not big deals, not major threats.
Fund flows have gone to energy and AI. Whenever this name goes on sale, it's proven to be a buying opportunity. No reason for it not to go higher. A screaming buy.
Darren SissonsPremium content
In fact, Visa's share has risen from 52.8% in 2007 to 61% in 2022 (based on transaction volume). Mastercard holds 25.5%, down from 28.2% in that period, while AmEx has slipped from 15.6% to 11.3%. AmEx caters to the business class and wealthier clientele. When they spend, AmEx rallies, but if they spend less, then AmEx falters. That sums up AmEx in the past year, and it's currently enjoying the best momentum. If you expect this trend to continue, then buy AmEx. If you want less volatility, an established brand and consistent earnings, then go with Visa.