Rick Stuchberry Visa Inc. V-N DON'T BUY Sep 15, 2022

12-month price target of $380. Rolled over on all the chatter about recession and slower growth. January earnings were great, beating on top and bottom; raised guidance. He owns MA instead, mainly due to slightly better upside than V's 16-17%.

Reliable name. Vast network, trusted brand, unmatched scale. Move from cash to digital payments. Consumer spending remains pretty solid in US. Cross-border transactions remain strong. Pretty capital light, which means very strong free cashflows. About 13% annual growth rate, paying a slight premium for the name. 

Recently bounced off 200-day MA very nicely, so it's a pretty good technical setup going forward. Yield is 0.68%.

Best years of growth are probably behind it. Buybacks and dividend increases. Really tied to consumption, whether institutional or consumer. Good brand, good story. Transition from cash to digital will continue -- premier opportunity in that space. He's overweight, and probably won't trim just yet. 

A name you buy whenever you get the opportunity; long term, you'll make money. He's not a huge fan of the market at these levels.

Both great, both enjoying growth ahead with much of the world still to adopt cashless payment. MA has seen a little higher growth, but both have good growth and both enjoy 97% gross margins and 67% operating margins. They got knocked about occasionally over fears of regulation. Prefers Visa slightly over its valuation discount. Good to buy either.

Every time he's trimmed the stock, it's been a mistake. Great example of the power of network effects. Though penetration is high in developed markets, it still delivers decent sales growth and low double-digit earnings growth. No reason for the story to imminently change. Value-added services (such as security, analytics, loyalty insights) are growing at multiples faster than the core business.

Another of the best in the world with a great business model. Getting into so many areas. Sky's the limit. Economic downturns will affect earnings, but long-term runway and tailwinds are intact.

It owns the technology that processes transactions so it is basically a tech business. However it is very expensive with P/E in the 30 times range so you have to believe they're going to grow. It is a solid business and inflation actually helps them. There are disruptions in the payment space which are chipping away at Visa's moat. Change is coming but how fast - this will affect growth in their business.

The Wall Street Journal reported that some retailers are looking at exploring the possibility of using stablecoins for customer purchases as an alternative to credit cards. We would not see this as a big threat, and would see the dip as a chance to buy.
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All credit cards are down 4-5% today on the stablecoin report. Stablecoin has been around, and PayPal has its own. Think about how long it will take in terms of regulations for Walmrt and Amazon to get into this businesses. Also, consumers like to wrack up credit card points. Stablecoin is a long way off. VA and MA are super companies. This is an opportunity.

Has owned both for a long time, but are trading near all-time highs, so this isn't the entry point. Wait a little. This as is expensive as they get in terms of PE. They are hard to dislodge, despite the threat of stablecoin.