United Parcel Services (UPS)

Guided down in a very competitive space. Down 34% over 3 years. Consumers are slowing down, and this may significantly hurt volumes. 

She just bought it. Unlike last year, their labour negotiations are now out of the way, earnings will grow 15-20% into 2026 and trades at a low 14x PE. Even if earnings are only 10%, she'll take it at that PE. It pays a fine 4.8% dividend.

Not a good option. Turnarounds seldom work out. No growth or capital appreciation in business. High capital requirements. Not a great business model. Better options available for investors in the markets. 

He prefers FedEx which isn't doing that well now. UPS pays a 4.4% dividend, but that isn't enough reason to buy it. He needs to see real earnings momentum.

Sold it because of the slowing economy, and the company suffers from higher costs and lower volumes.

He just sold it. He was recommending this until their earnings report proved him wrong. Their margins were 8% vs. 13% historically. He's humbled. It will have to fall a lot before he considers buying it back.

She'd buy at $125. They've had to deal with a lot including the strike and inflation. Margins are under pressure from Amazon, but $125/share is the safe pre-pandemic PE and collecting a 5% dividend? She can live with that.

Loves it. The market is wrong. Maybe the numbers next week won't be great, but he would buy on any weakness.

Reports next week and given how the consumer remains strong, that report should not disappoint. They enjoy a duopoly with FedEx.

The labour agreement expires on July 31. He isn't concerned, but is concerned about the potential damage to the wider economy. We don't need this at this point in the recovery. UPS manages its balance sheet well, a better choice than FedEx.

Owns UPS instead, and it's good that FedEx that both are focusing on profitability. She prefers UPS for having more density in its ground business and more tied to e-commerce which will remain strong. UPS is exposed to Amazon, which some feel is a risk, but she doesn't anymore, because Amazon can't invest more in infrastructure anymore.

How long can both keep cutting jobs until they can't cut anymore? FedEx retained pricing power with ground revenues up 7%. Interesting. How long can they maintain this edge as we enter a recession.