Tesla Inc (TSLA)

Public bet on Elon Musk - depends on performance of founder. Fundamental electronic car business under pressure. Chinese competition very strong. Lithium production always a concern (China controls majority). Cutting costs and staff - but unsure on direction of business. Premium brand is a good aspect, but difficult to determine outcome. 

He just sold it. Tesla has negative momentum, on a road to nowhere. He wouldn't short or own it. Last quarter, revenues were -8%, but 47% over the last three years.

Elon Musk is in China, and China will allow self-driving cars. Maybe, but probably not Tesla has restored momentum. Unlike Apple, Tesla perhaps is not defensive if you expect choppy markets ahead. Don't short Tesla, but he isn't sure we will return to the 2021 Tesla over the next 6-12 months.

Tesla missed numbers including negative free cash flow, but CEO Musk sold the quarter well.

They announced more price cuts to their cars, among ongoing problems with executives departures and layoffs. Compare this to Ford which led the S&P today.

They report tomorrow. If they report that they're making money and Elon Musk pulls a rabbit out of hat, shares will rally. But if he talks only about self-driving cars and robo-taxis, then this will fall.

It reports Tuesday. The last quarter has seen only bad news, but maybe Musk can pull a rabbit out of this hat and it better not be self-driving cars. There's a lot on the line for Tesla. He give Musk the benefit of the doubt.

Hard to determine future of business. Share price still over valued. Performance of business under pressure. Car business only worth ~$80/share. Ability to generate profits under question. Better options for investors available. Company has continued to cut prices on products, and has missed sales estimates. 

Ultimate hype stock, speculative. If you look at the operating fundamentals, margin profile isn't good and FCF is less robust. Those fundamentals are weakening. Last quarter was negative, expects disappointment in upcoming reporting. If your heart's set on it, wait for that, may drop further. 

Previously, always able to overcome negative sentiment with growth. Competitive pressures, especially out of China, are intensifying. Valuation always implies that its future is more than just a car company, and this is too tough for him to handicap. Consumer preferences have changed, tilting more to hybrids.

He's shorting it. The company has no governance over Elon Musk. What about allegations of drug use? Questionable acquisitions? The fundamentals are weakening--EV adoption is slipping and China is supporting its own EV-makers that compete with Tesla. Also, Tesla is cutting prices. Musk is a liar to keep his price stock up.

She's long and owns it personally. The chart looks terrible now and could go lower. But she won't count out Elon Musk, one of the most innovative people around. The earnings report will be bad, but we will get clarity. There will be a chance to step into this. If they do a full pivot into self-drivng robo-taxi, this will lead to a re-evaluation of this stock. Tesla remains the top-selling brand in China. They will announce a new giant factory in India.

Trades at 90x PE and is declining on nearly every metric. GM trades at 4.7x PE. Tesla is not a growth company anymore.

The street loved Elon Musk only when the stock was doing fine, and now when TSLA is not doing well, the knives are out. Musk always treated the street with contempt and now he's getting that back to him. Some consider him a one-trick pony or has lost his touch. He thinks he's a genius.