Tourmaline Oil CorpTOU.TOWAITAug 20, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 06, 2026. Market Open.
About 80% gas, 20% oil. One of the big 6 names in Canada. Widely held, and by lots of institutions. ARX is being taken out, so this name is the last one standing that's predominantly gas. Very well run. Trades ~7x cashflow, fairly valued, not a lot of upside. Fairly heavy capex program.
Not a huge fan of Canadian nat gas, as pricing in Western Canada is atrocious. He's more favourable to Canadian oil. Dividend is ~3.5%.
Iran conflict prompted a lot of natural gas drilling in the US, and so the price collapsed. LNG Canada allows exports to higher-priced markets in Asia. New floating gasification plants will also add capacity. More upside. (You could take some of your oil profits and redeploy into gas names, which look really cheap.)
It's the biggest Canadian natural gas driller, but hasn't benefited from the US-Iran war, because North American nat gas prices have held (can't ship it abroad). TOU is managed well. They're building their infrastructure to lower the cost of the gas fields and this coincides with higher nat gas prices. Free cash flows will spike as capex falls and LNG contracts kick in.
(Analysts’ price target is $70.72)Paying you really well to wait. At the time, he bought it for the nat gas market finally turning; all those catalysts are still in place. Still cheaper than it ought to be. Not an "if" story, just a matter of time. Sit and enjoy your dividend; will start to work probably in the not-too-distant future.
Never discount the important of dividends to your total return! Underwhelming, while a lot of other energy stocks have really taken off. Has "oil" in its name, but it's actually Canada's largest nat gas producer. SHEL acquisition of ARX was a watershed moment in the Canadian oil patch and, in particular, nat gas.
Still grossly undervalued.
Like both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile.
One of his basic tenets is that if a stock isn't behaving the way you think it should based on what you think you know, then assume you might be missing something. You need discipline around selling a position. He wants to own the leading companies fundamentally and technically.
We are in a seasonally weak period for gas; wait for that to firm up before putting $$ to work. In early spring he was 12% energy, now down to 6%. TOU trading better than only 19% of companies in the S&P, relatively weak. Breadth in energy sector has been weak. Will turn around at some point, but can't say when.