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Tembec Inc. (TMB.TO)

DON'T BUY
Not jumping up and down about the forest product sector. Thinks that the outlook for "wood products" is the best in the whole sector and that the B.C. producers do a better job, so prefers International Forest.
HOLD
Pulp prices have been coming down and he is not bullish on pulp. The lumber side seems to be doing pretty well and the lumber dispute could be over in a few months.
BUY
With the focus on natural resources, it seems that other sectors are being ignored. Well managed.
DON'T BUY
The company has aggresively grown. Not a good balance sheet. Suggest to look at more focused companies.
PAST TOP PICK
(Past top pick May 5/04. Up 40%.) Have sold some of their holdings. Getting a little expensive.
BUY
Lumber prices are high right now. Receipts should be very strong this quarter. A little concerned that rising interest rates will cool off the building boom.
DON'T BUY
Prefers Canfor. Losing money this year, barely making money next year.
TOP PICK
Probably the most levered company to pulp in Canada. Pulp has finally bottomed and is just starting to turn around. As solid company.
SELL
Biggest concern is that pricing is not keeping up with the Cdn$. Would sell at this point and go back in around the $7 range.
PAST TOP PICK
(A top pick May 5/03. Up 4.5%.) Has been a bit of a dog. The paper and forest sector has not done well. High Canadian dollar has also hurt.
DON'T BUY
A beaten up company.The balance sheet is weak.Need a lower Canadian dollar.Doesn't generate much free cash flow.
WAIT
Sector is down near its bottom. If economy picks up and prices move up, it will take a good bounce. A little early right now.
DON'T BUY
Too much debt leveraged to a cyclical pulp industry. The higher Canadian dollar hurts.
DON'T BUY
Watching the forest product sector. Pulp looks like a problem still. Newsprint prices are still low. Strong Canadian dollar doesn't help.
WEAK BUY
$7.40 is a historically low. Pulp pricing has been weak. Second quarter had a larger loss than a year ago. Trading volume has been dropping. Very speculative.
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