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Tembec Inc. (TMB.TO)

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Dec 20/05. Down 5%.) Actually went down to $1 at one point. Feels the company will file for bankruptcy. Is still short.

DON'T BUY
Has some very attractive US bonds that have a high yield. He likes the bonds that the than the stock. It's tough to see how they are going to turn the company around. The bonds will help.
DON'T BUY
Stock has decrease to $1.00 and could decrease further. Would not buy.
DON'T BUY
It’s hanging on which is about the best you can say for it. The sector is in trouble. We are in a transition that is moving away from newsprint to electronic media.
TOP PICK
Top Short This company has run out of time. Their interest coverage is 20%. They can only pay 20% of the interest and that's before capital expenditures and also before principal payments.
SELL
The biggest problem has been the strong Cnd$. There is no commodity price support.
DON'T BUY
A possible candidate for bankruptcy at some point. Has a high level of debt. Made a lot of acquisitions. The price for most of its commodities is down and their costs are up.
DON'T BUY
Has a difficult time being optomistic about this whole sector. Paper and forest stocks look very weak.
DON'T BUY
A risky situation based on the strong Cdn$ and duties on lumber.
WEAK BUY
Has gone through a negative pattern and the stock is very much below the 200 day moving average. Paper stocks usually participate in the late, late, late stages of the bull market. If it rises, don't expect much more than $6 on this stock.
HOLD
The forest products is one sector that has not done well in the strong markets in the last few years. Very cheap, but there are reasons for that. All kinds of problems. Very risky.
DON'T BUY
A very well run pulp and paper company, but are in the one area that has not benefited from stronger commodity prices. Has not been able to make any money.
DON'T BUY
Avoids this stock. Their balance sheet is always over leveraged. Exposure to a rising Cdn$ is quite high. In serious trouble and wouldn't be surprised if they do a dilutive equity deal.
DON'T BUY
Prefers forest products out of British Columbia and the lumber side of it rather than Eastern Canada which has higher operating costs.
DON'T BUY
Has made a career in not buying paper/forest stocks in Eastern Canada. Cdn$ is just killing them. Relatively weak balance sheet.
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