iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

If interest rates go up, this ETF will get hurt as it is a direct proxy on the interest-rate market. He doesn’t think rates are going up for the next year to year and a half. Even if rates stay steady or go lower, he doesn’t think you are getting paid to take on that risk. If you own, consider taking at least half off the table right now.

He was looking at this chart just today. There is an older resistance in the latter of 2011, which it is attempting to bounce off of. Today did not create a buy signal, but if it stays above that level for a few days or a week, it would be bullish.

This is showing signs of topping out. Chart shows a rising wedge pattern. These patterns are bearish.

Chart shows a nice long upward trend. You could put a stop in at around $123.95.

(A Top Pick Aug 18/10. Up 4.5%.) 20+ yr treasury bonds. A bit riskier play because of the currency. His target was $106 but this made have to be revised if it breaks above its old high of about $108.

(A Top Pick July 8/10. Down 1.36%.) 20+ yr Tr. Bond ETF. Sold this in late fall/early winter and made some money. This year it looks a lot more encouraging as we are coming in at a lower level. Fantastic risk/reward at the current price.

(A Top Pick June 4/10. Up 4.18%.) 20+ yr Tr. Bond ETF. Has a view that there is an undercurrent of deflation.

(A Top Pick June 4/10. Up 0.49%.) 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. Sold his holdings. Prefers Cdn long term bonds.

(Top Pick Mar 27/10, Up 5.07% total return) Sold it because the dollar was rising. This is starting to look very interesting again now. He would get back in if it was not for the currency thing.

(Top Pick Mar 22/10, Up 0.57%) Does not hold this any more. It’s coming right back to April ’10 low. It is interesting. What might happen in the spring is that rates might spike up again this spring. It is back on his radar screen.

(A Top Pick June 4/10. Down 4.33%.) 20+ yr Tr. Bond ETF. Got out about 1.5 months ago with a 1%-2% gain. Still believes in this long term.

(A Top Pick March 22/10. Up 8%.) US 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. Still believes in deflation as a long-term theme. UD Bond market has recently acted odd, so he got out of this. Will probably get back in sometime.

(A Top Pick Aug 4/09. Up 15.6%.) 20+ yr Treasury Bond ETF. Until he sees an issue with inflation, he will continue to hold.

(A Top Pick Aug 4/09. Up 20%.) 20+ yr treasury bonds. High trend line right now but probably should come off a bit into the low $100’s.

(A Top Pick Aug 4/09. Up 12%.) 20+yr Treasury Bonds ETF. At this point in the economic recovery, we shouldn't have 10-year money at 3%.