Stockchase Opinions

Pat McHughTeck Resources Ltd. (B)TECK.B.TOBUYMay 28, 2007

Broad diversification across any metal. Very cheap. Very profitable.
$44.00

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Mining
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DON'T BUY

Execution risk on this one keeps her watching rather than owning. Analyst price target is near $90. Upside, but you need to believe in the merger and the mine ramp up; a show-me story. Last quarter saw a strong earnings beat, copper production up 10%.

BUY

A fine way to play copper which is in great demand from AI data centre building. A prolonged high oil price will dampen demand for everything, though, including copper. That's why there is a pullback now, after a huge run. She doesn't own any copper stocks.

WEAK BUY

With Anglo merger, will be a major global copper play. This name might make sense. Better valuation than others. Less geopolitical risk.

HOLD

He's generally bullish on the price of copper, and TECK is a big producer. If copper price stays or increases, then cashflow should also increase. Anglo American has complementary assets, so combined entity should be better off.

If you own, hold. If not, don't chase due to recent runup.

HOLD

The new combination of companies could be quite good, looking beyond the QB2 problems.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 02/24, Down 12%)December 9 is voting day for the merger.

Long-term outlook for TECK.B on its own is very strong. If merger gets done, it'll probably become a very important copper name for institutional investors around the world. Disappointment in QB2 mine over the last year, and that's why it's considering this deal. Those issues will get fixed.

He'd be a buyer here. 

HOLD

Broke out of long-term downtrend, working its way higher. That breakout was driven by the takeover offer. Stocks of companies being taken over often rally to the offer price and then just flatline. 

But copper today is $5, good commodity price support. So in this case, could see some movement (and in the sector) if it trades off the commodity price. If copper blasts through $5, could lift the copper stocks.

HOLD

Founder is all for the merger. Another chapter to be written to the takeover story. Could be an interloper for either Anglo or Teck. Don't buy here, but if you already own, it's worth holding onto for the optionality. Something's going to happen, and it's more likely to be to the upside than that the bottom falls out of the stock.

WEAK BUY
Merging with Anglo American.

It's a no-premium deal. Disappointed a number of investors. Looks like a sewn-up deal with respect to insiders and politicians. He likes copper, and it's harder and harder to find. Likes prospects and synergies for the combined mine in Chile.

He doesn't own mining companies, as they tend not to be good businesses. This one looks interesting if you want some copper.

DON'T BUY

In a bit of trouble. Copper has come down from $9 highs to ~$4-5. Main mine in Chile is having production issues, costs coming in higher. Revenue announced last week was OK, but can't get over the hurdle of costs. 

FM is an alternative.

TOP PICK

Great business, really cleaned up balance sheet by selling coal division. Now pure-play copper. Holds $4.8B in cash, returning a ton to shareholders. Stock's been hit last couple of weeks by mine expansion ($2.4B) near Kamloops, which will extend life of the mine to 2046. Pretty low valuation. Yield is 1.11%.

He's looking at the $42 put out to September. You get paid $1, which gives you 2.5% and a bit of downside protection. 

(Analysts’ price target is $43.02)
WEAK BUY

He likes metals and is buying. Likes copper and precious metals. There is support for Teck going back to late 2023 and it recently bounced up. It's a swing trade. This might hit $60. The chart looks positive, but be ready to sell if the chart fails.

WEAK BUY

He likes metals and is buying. Likes copper and precious metals. There is support for Teck going back to late 2023 and it recently bounced up. It's a swing trade. This might hit $60. The chart looks positive, but be ready to sell if the chart fails.

WATCH

Doesn't currently own; has been in and out, depending on how he feels about copper. Approximately the 11th largest producer of copper globally, a lot of which is pinned on the QB2 mine (a year behind, struggling to get up to full speed). But it will double copper production by 2027. Once that mine is steadier, probably looking at more share buybacks which is good for organic ROIC for shareholders.

Trades at a discount. Thinks he'll be back in very soon. He likes where copper is, even with the uncertainty around China. Q3 is probably when we'll start to see some really good momentum in the stock.

BUY

Likes it. Got hit in April. Market priced in weaker economic growth going forward, tariff confusion, and higher probability of recession. Appetite shift toward precious metals. Pause on copper; for example, EV production will eventually continue, but is on hold. Electrical buildout globally will eventually ramp up again.

A lot of bad news was priced in, analysts are now getting on board. Good play longer term.