Mike Vinokur Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T WAIT Jun 09, 2025

This situation highlights a massively important point. When these high-index component companies trip and do a faceplant, they get massacred. Everybody jumps on the hate train, and all you hear are negative comments. Looking at the chart, stock's probably up 25% this year from the point of peak negativity. 

The biggest source of return in any investment is the change in the multiple. TD can still grow at a low single-digit rate, and then the multiple rerates. It went from 9x PE to 11.5x PE. Now slightly above his buy price. Excellent job righting the ship, and it was all the excess capital that was the key.

Longer term will do reasonably well. For those looking for income, and you get a bit of earnings growth. The big longer-term question is whether it stays in the US or not. Unlikely to commit additional capital to build out its platform in the US.

Past high back in 2022 was around $108. In the doghouse until May of this year. One of his biggest positions. He's riding the wave. Could break above $100 very easily, and $108 isn't out of the question. Momentum is peaking right now, but he's seeing a drop in volume (which indicates sideways motion or pullback). Be cautious, it's overextended.

If it dropped back to $90, he'd definitely consider exiting.

It has had a great run and is the best preforming Canadian bank. All banks have recovered since April. You can probably count on a 5 to 7% return plus the dividend.

Pleased to see how the market's revalued it higher. Light at end of tunnel after regulatory scandal. Trying to reset the growth algorithm by September 29 investor day, which gives the new CEO time to assess things. 

Great Canadian personal and commercial banking franchise. Good and growing capital markets. Good scale player in wealth and asset management. Still one of the largest banks in the US; growth will be challenging, but he has faith in its creative strategies.

Will have to work through the pessimism of US blunder. The discount on that was excessive. Will continue to make good ROE and drive the business forward, regardless of whether the Canadian economy slows down in the next year or two.

It ranks in the middle of the path. Has estimated earnings growth of 8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026. Free cash flow is down 21% year over year. Overall return of invested capital is less than 1/4 of 1%. If switching you could go to CIBC

Has broken to new highs, along with its peers, but volumes have been declining recently. This is set up for a correction after this big run, so wait for that correction. He's very bullish on Canada for the next few years (Ottawa will spend on infrastructure). As for US, that is forcing Canada to look at Europe and China for more trade, such as natural gas. We're looking globally now, and not only to the south.

Surprising how much it's come back, due in large part to sentiment having been so negative. Penalties will dampen growth. Still, numbers for both US and Canadian financials are starting to accelerate. Canadian banks over-provisioned for loan losses; if they don't have to tap into those reserves, should see really strong numbers going forward. On technicals, all the Canadian banks are moving up the ranks.

He got out recently. Caught up on valuation once people realized how over-capitalized they were in wake of US fines. Still no growth in the US, so where's growth going to come from? He switched into CM, but now that's looking expensive.

Recently lightened up on re-rating, but still likes it. Now trades at almost parity or slight discount to peers. US missteps are behind them. Incurring lots of expenses to step up anti-money-laundering compliance. How long will they be in the US penalty box? WFC was there for 7 years, and he hopes it won't be that long for TD.

Feels should be able to reach growth guidance of 7%. Will have to pull other levers such as tightening belt in Canada, growing capital markets, or competing more fiercely ("elbows up";).