Opinions
Christine Hughes
Toronto Dominion
TD-T
COMMENT
Sep 17, 2014
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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The big banks face challenges, because the homes bought during Covid, when interest rates were rock-bottom, are and will pay much higher rates. TD is very tied to home mortgages, so be careful. Also, they're restricted from growing their business in the US for 4-5 years. He sold it, because the future didn't look great. He bought more Royal instead.
Likes TD a lot. Very undervalued at 10x PE. Potential for multiple to rerate in medium term. More upside as it distances itself from the overhang of regulatory infractions. All that should give you a better total return. He'd pick TD.
For BAC, even with deregulation in US, the big banks are already so large, it's hard to imagine they'd be allowed to get even bigger.
Asset cap in US will be in place for a number of years; once it's eventually lifted, that will be an avenue for growth. US accounts for about 25-30% of earnings. Bank feels it can still grow in Canada. Valuation still quite attractive at 10x PE. Path back to growth will take a while. Yield is quite attractive too.
Q1 was a much-needed low-drama quarter. Schwab sale. Market appreciated the quicker CEO transition. Wealth management good, strong capital markets. Still trading at a premium to the group, and that's not warranted because of growth limits in US.
All banks are at risk if economy darkens. But if economic environment is OK, he thinks BMO has the best upside.
Was a screaming buy back at $78. Likes its Canadian banking business. Sold Schwab, redeployed proceeds back into Canada. Now at $90, she'd be hesitant to go into any bank right now before earnings. Suspects all banks will need to increase credit provisions. Wait to see plan for growing in Canada.
Over the very long term, it and RY are the 2 premier Canadian banks, so she'd be OK paying a premium to own.
With your bond background, how do you approach a stock like this? Her approach to this is the same as her approach to any stock. It is whether or not the risk area of the market is a good idea at the time. You have to deflect to the bond market and not to the earnings for this bank as that is backwards looking and the bond market is dynamic current and forward-looking. If we are in the stage of the cycle that is positive for equities and the bond market is supportive of that, it means the banks are making money. She likes this bank.