Stock price when the opinion was issued
He sold off a bunch of energy names, but retained this one. Concerns about global recession is hitting energy names. He's in the camp of too early to think about a recession, and tariffs will look very different 6-12 months from now. If we see there's no recession, things can turn around quickly.
200-day and 200-week MAs still moving higher, a good sign. Right at 200-week MA today, and that can be massive long-term support for most stocks. If you own, don't sell. If wanting to buy, this might be your chance to look at it. Yield is 5%.
He likes the big integrated names, but doesn't own any oil producers now. His team deemed that group as having first-derivative vulnerability to tariffs on volumes and profitability. Premium brand in the space. He's waiting out some of the volatility on the price of oil before getting back in. Nice dividend.
Seeing better pricing on crude products from Western Canada, a game-changer for a stock like this. Balance sheet can withstand shocks. Starting to see realistic moves by Canada to open other export markets for energy. Trading at extremely low valuations, time to start picking away at it for the long term. Yield is 4.61%.
(Analysts’ price target is $59.78)Has made tremendous strides over the last couple of years. BMO's report on insider buying shows highest level in last 5 years, and that speaks volumes. Timing is quite good, with oil showing resistance at $60. Very healthy at under 1x debt to EBITDA.
Look beyond 2025, when tariffs will have been resolved. Energy should bypass a lot of that because of how strategic it is, so we're not going to see a 50% tariff.
Suncor vs. CNQ Both great Canadian energy stocks. He has owned Suncor and currently owns CNQ as his only energy stock. CNQ maintained its dividend throughout the lockdown, while he believes Suncor lowered theirs to protect their balance sheet. He likes CNQ in energy---you still get a nice yield. Suncor and CNQ will do well long term. Suncor will do well if the energy space improves. He owns 3.5-4% energy on the low side, but you don't want to own too much or too little energy. About two years ago, SU's refining assets were doing really well and got a premium valuations, so maybe that's why the stock has unwound recently.