
TSE:RY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
RY has been one of the fastest-growing Canadian banks, and it has survived several recessions in the past. Although there is the potential for a recession to arise as a result of high interest rates, we would be very comfortable with holding any of the large Canadian banks for the long-term. While there are concerns about a potential recession, a lot of these fears have been priced into the Canadian banks, as we have seen their valuations contract as a result of weakening capital markets and reduced lending.
The large Canadian banks will generally grow with the economy and the capital markets. As the Canadian real estate market grows and consumers and businesses take on additional debt to fund real estate, property, investments, etc., the large banks will benefit and see their top and bottom lines grow. Most of the Canadian banks have also been expanding into other geographies, which has helped to stimulate growth.
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There'll be little disparity among the big banks though CM depends more on Canadian mortgages. Long-term, the big banks will pay you 10-15% returns annually, though they haven't been giving that in recent years. He prefers RY because of its slightly higher ROE and is more diversified.
Dividend yield is pretty good at 4.1%, and it's grown at an 8% compound pace over the last 10 years. Leading personal and commercial banking franchise in Canada. Big presence in US. Should benefit from skittish deposits in Silicon Valley. Top 10 global e-capital markets business. 12% compounded shareholder return over a decade, sees more ahead.
Owns shares in Canadian Dividend fund.
Cream of the crop in Canadian banks.
Trading at higher valuation.
Not concerned about interest rates (will charge higher fees if rates go up).
Strong franchise value.
Growing Canadian population will fuel business.