Stockchase Opinions

Colin Cieszynski Parkland Fuel Corp PKI-T WATCH Nov 29, 2024

Correction for most of this year, gave back over half of its previous move and that's pretty significant. Started to pick up in last week or so, looks as though it wants to break out of a downtrend. Ideally, want to see it get above $40.

$36.260

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

Likes energy, and this is showing signs of improvement. Moved above 50-day MA for the first time since start of the year. Likes the setup, and seems to be turning around technically. If he's correct about our place in the cycle, this name should work at least till the end of the year and likely into the start of next. Yield is 3.91%.

(Analysts’ price target is $51.83)
HOLD

Owns in balanced income fund, hasn't worked this year. Down 20% before dividends, not great. Volatile fuel prices, consumer not spending as much. Dividend grower for many years. Management in fight with major shareholder. Ridiculously cheap valuation, share price should have found a floor. Could be subject of an acquisition.

COMMENT

It is an OK company with cash flow but has not received respect. It has tried to improve its operations and cut costs but it is a cyclical business. It is quite leveraged.

WATCH

He has owned it. It's volatile, making tops and bottoms with breakdowns. It's now basing, which is good; maybe this will break above $36. Wait and see.

BUY
Positively impacted by US tariffs.

Sounds counterintuitive, but WFG and trees are going to be beneficiaries. US still needs them, just going to pay higher prices.

GRT.UN is a good name. PKI works well here. Materials sector, with a name like NTR. 

There's even a part of the TSX that does well with a falling CAD, as earnings get amplified.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Down 5%)

(Note the short timeframe.) Trying to find a floor here. Part of his broader energy call.

TOP PICK

Should work regardless of tariffs. It's being pushed to unlock value. A few $$ to be earned from low-hanging fruit. Market sees EPS growing 15% over next 2 years, trading at 9x. Idiosyncratic name, not tethered to news headlines, with a nice dividend. Yield is 3.8%.

(Analysts’ price target is $48.70)
TOP PICK

A big shareholder is agitating for change, wanting management to enhance value. World-class assets. It's cheap.  Refining margins have been coming in and general malaise in economy may explain share price. Very undervalued and value will be realized somehow. Debt, but a lot of FCF. Yield is 3.96%.

(Analysts’ price target is $47.91)
COMMENT

The controlling shareholder wants to sell the gas stations and keep the refineries where the margins are higher and sit on lots of real estate. He doesn't own the shares, but the bonds which pay 6% during falling interest rates. Not investment-grade bonds, so the leverage is high.