Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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BUY

The price of their acquisition, Coastal Petrochemical, seems to be reasonable, but the oil sands are such long duration investments that you won't really know how reasonable it was for another 2/3 years.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 4/05. Up 16%.) Have still been adding for new clients. Has above average growth going forward for a few years.

TOP PICK

There isn't a better way to play the energy outlook in Canada on the integrated side, particularly if you are looking beyond this year and next and you're interested in medium and long term into 2006/2007. That's where you'll see the real growth coming. Current level does not reflect the higher commodity prices. Margins on their refining is looking better now.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 18/05. Up 17%.) Keeps showing up on their screens as having very good value. With oils, you never know where the top is, but this company is always there in terms of valuation. Good cheap oil that he thinks is still safe and has room to increase.

HOLD

Q: Sell Petro Canada (PCA-T) and Inco (N-T) in order to get cheaper stocks? A: They both have short term events, but actually have great growth projects. Both companies are going to look terrific 2/3 years from now. Commodities are going to be in their favour and long term growth is in their favour.

BUY

This is one oil that has been lagging. It now seems that buyers believe that everything that was a problem is now over. His initial target is $79 and he believes there will be a lot more.

TOP PICK

The cheapest of the integrated oils around the world. In an extended period of high energy costs.

TOP PICK

Has been lagging the other major guys, but is really good value. Getting a lot of assets and it's not expensive.

TOP PICK

Recently bought UTS. Will require large capital to build.

BUY

Positive on the price of energy, including oil, gas, uranium, etc. The demand is not going away and there are supply constraints. Very important to have exposure to this sector.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 14/04. Up 1.5%.) Has all the necessary features as a large cap with off-shore east coast, tar sands, integrated for balance, the McKenzie Delta. Has been lagging. On a multiple basis, it looks reasonable. Not high risk.

DON'T BUY

Has not invested in the conventional oil companies in Canada, i.e., those that have to drill because it's a very tough gig.

BUY

Most of the integrated oils that have been doing well, is not from production, but from downstream, refining and marketing, which has done particularily well.

TOP PICK

An integrated that has really lagged. The rest of the government position was unwound at $64, so now it's free of that overhang. One of the cheaper ones on a multiple basis.

BUY

A good hold for a refiner and marketer. Very cheap compared to the others.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)