Colin Stewart Pollard Banknote Ltd PBL-T TOP PICK Feb 19, 2025

#2 in the world in instant printed lottery tickets, huge barriers to entry. All customers are governments. Huge input costs affected fixed-price contracts, but contracts are now being renewed at much higher prices. Lottery business is booming. Leader in iLottery. Margins will improve significantly. Yield is 0.67%.

Lottery ticket business with strong business performance. Family owner/operated business with oligopoly. Pivoting into online business line. Very defensive business model (gambling not going away). Current valuation high, would wait for weakness before buying. Would hold if already own shares. 

Great job pivoting to lottery and gaming. Digital strategy. Bit weak over last quarter. Very strong model for growth going forward. FCF accelerating. PE ratio is coming down. He's looked at, but hasn't pulled trigger.

Oligopoly, high barriers to entry. Fixed-price contracts have been renegotiated at significantly higher prices. Shares are in recovery mode. Starting to see much improved margins. Q1 was a record, and should generate record profits this year and next. Low end of valuation range, great time to buy.

Has owned the business in the past. Frustrated with rising input costs during Covid-19. Very well run business, but profitability has fallen. Not able to pass on higher costs to customers. Overall, is a good business - will own down the road. If already own - would recommend holding. 

If you own it, hold, but don't double down. Stable revenue growth, solid financial position. Good debt situation. For him, would need to show more significant revenue and cashflow growth. Would also help if it improved dividend yield. Losing a customer is definitely a risk.

Decent company. As a guy from Winnipeg, he wishes the Pollard family well.

Recently volatile because they lost a customer in Michigan, but later gained a new client. Their business won't disappear and they are well run. Likes how the family runs this business. Good to hold with decent upside.

The second of three suppliers of lottery tickets. Costs soared post-Covid because of paper and ink costs, but new contracts will suppliers will lead to record top- and bottom-line growth. Recently they could not renew an electronic lottery contract, but won a contract with the state of Kansas. So, shares are bouncing back. Trading at only 7x EBITDA. (Brookfield paid for a competitor which had a 14x EBITDA.)

A little volatile, too much for her. Hasn't seen a recovery yet, after topping at $60 in mid-2021, but may be rolling over at the current $23. To boost growth, they are spending internally and buying companies, which has impacted their margins negatively. There's risky, upside potential, but she'd pass.