Opinions Colin Stewart
Pollard Banknote LtdPBL.TOPAST TOP PICKJul 11, 2025
Colin StewartStock price when the opinion was issued
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Oligopoly, with high barriers to entry. Long-term contracts create a stable base of revenue. Story's shifting more to digital, which should support margins over time. Risks are that it depends on relatively small number of customers, plus heavily regulated.
Path to analysts' lofty targets could take a while.
Global tri-opoloy. High barriers to entry. Stable industry that's grown ~6% a year for 30 years, never a down year. New growth avenue of iLottery, which is very high margin with a different demographic base. Well managed, insider ownership strong, margins improving. Low valuation for high-quality company. Yield is 0.8%.
(Analysts’ price target is $40.33)Colin StewartA little volatile, too much for her. Hasn't seen a recovery yet, after topping at $60 in mid-2021, but may be rolling over at the current $23. To boost growth, they are spending internally and buying companies, which has impacted their margins negatively. There's risky, upside potential, but she'd pass.
The second of three suppliers of lottery tickets. Costs soared post-Covid because of paper and ink costs, but new contracts will suppliers will lead to record top- and bottom-line growth. Recently they could not renew an electronic lottery contract, but won a contract with the state of Kansas. So, shares are bouncing back. Trading at only 7x EBITDA. (Brookfield paid for a competitor which had a 14x EBITDA.)
(Analysts’ price target is $35.75)
If you own it, hold, but don't double down. Stable revenue growth, solid financial position. Good debt situation. For him, would need to show more significant revenue and cashflow growth. Would also help if it improved dividend yield. Losing a customer is definitely a risk.
Decent company. As a guy from Winnipeg, he wishes the Pollard family well.
Has owned the business in the past. Frustrated with rising input costs during Covid-19. Very well run business, but profitability has fallen. Not able to pass on higher costs to customers. Overall, is a good business - will own down the road. If already own - would recommend holding.
Oligopoly, high barriers to entry. Fixed-price contracts have been renegotiated at significantly higher prices. Shares are in recovery mode. Starting to see much improved margins. Q1 was a record, and should generate record profits this year and next. Low end of valuation range, great time to buy.
Great job pivoting to lottery and gaming. Digital strategy. Bit weak over last quarter. Very strong model for growth going forward. FCF accelerating. PE ratio is coming down. He's looked at, but hasn't pulled trigger.
Jamie Murray Lottery ticket business with strong business performance. Family owner/operated business with oligopoly. Pivoting into online business line. Very defensive business model (gambling not going away). Current valuation high, would wait for weakness before buying. Would hold if already own shares.
#2 in the world in instant printed lottery tickets, huge barriers to entry. All customers are governments. Huge input costs affected fixed-price contracts, but contracts are now being renewed at much higher prices. Lottery business is booming. Leader in iLottery. Margins will improve significantly. Yield is 0.67%.
(Analysts’ price target is $29.75)It is the second largest supplier of printed lottery tickets and a leader in web based lottery tickets in the U.S. There are only three players allowed to sell printed lottery tickets for the government, all of which have trouble meeting demand. The only problem is the big increase in the costs of materials along with fixed price contracts with the government. However the new contracts are at higher prices so there should be a great increase in profits ahead. Margins should recover and do even better. Trading at 7X earnings.
A major core holding of his. Sports betting doesn't impact instant lottery tickets which is in fact booming. PBL leads in online lotteries. But shares got way overvalued because excitement over online lotteries and has come down (also due to higher raw costs like ink and paper). He sold then bought back shares. A high-quality, stable company. Drivers: an oligopoly of only 3 players, and governments constantly need revenues.
(Note the short timeframe.) Still likes it. No strong reason for it to be off as much as it is. Steady business, as governments always need $$. Outlook is fantastic, long runway for growth in the iLottery space. Cheap. One of the dominant players globally.