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Niko ResourcesNKO.TODON'T BUYSep 25, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
This has been a pack of cards falling through. There is kind of an option value building into this company because of its whole macroeconomic play with its geographic location close to some of the basins in India. Fundamentally the balance sheet looks really stretched. They would need a lot of help on the capital markets side in terms of financing alternatives. Trades at a Price to Book of about 6 times.
He would stay away from this. Highly speculative because there is so much debt. There is talk that after the election in India, there will be a price increase in the gas that this company and their partner get out of the D6 block. Not sure that will happen. If they don’t get that price increase, this equity will probably not be around in 2 years.
(Top Pick May 21/13, Down 62%) The big problem is that they were supposed to get a price increase in India that would allow an increase in production. The problem was that there was an election going on so they removed the price increase for the election. They have started selling non-core assets. He thinks they will do other deals. Once they resolve balance sheet issues, the story will wake up. Wait for the politics to resolve and cash flow to go up.
You have to be really, really careful with this stock. This company is locked into long-term contracts on offshore drilling rigs. Because of their cash situation and lack of exploration success in Indonesia, he feels they have about 6 months of life support left. Thinks they have to come to market and do a massive equity financing to clear up the overhang. Burning cash on a daily basis.