Microsoft CorpMSFTDON'T BUYMay 14, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 16, 2026. Market Open.
Buy it, put it away for 10 years, do very well. Suffering from software outflows from large ETFs. Revenue still growing in teens, even better on EPS. Investing a lot in capacity (buy they can afford it), which customers have signed onto for the next several years. Trades at 20x PE, yet nothing's really changed.
Three durable growth engines: Azure, enterprise software, AI monetization. Key is that it keeps turning its installed base into higher-value subscriptions and usage-based revenue, while preserving margins and cash generation. Market's concerned that margins and cash will be pressured as Gen AI gets rolled out through competitors.
Azure remains the clearest growth driver. Key competitive advantage with enterprise software is that one stack bundles infrastructure, security, identity, and data/productivity tools. Raises costs to switch, which provides pricing power. Yield is 0.93%.
The lower MSFT gets, the more he likes it. The valuation keeps falling. He recently bought a position and would add to it now. If it holds, that's a very good technical signal. He loves MSFT, but consider that France will forbid the government using Microsoft Teams. That said, MSFT isn't going anywhere.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
Concern for the hyperscalers has been capex. Still below 200-day MA, which is trending lower. Elite cloud-AI franchise. Real AI monetization down the road. Bar for execution is very high. Excellent long-term business, but technical picture is not clean at this point. Still 18% earnings growth, not unreasonably valued, but you have to pay attention to the charts.
Names like GOOG and AMZN are more diversified beyond the cloud. He also likes TSM. See his Top Picks.