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Opinions The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong
Microsoft CorpMSFTTOP PICKApr 01, 2026
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 15, 2026. Market Open.
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Good runway to price target. A hardware and software company, but put in penalty box because of software. Well positioned for enterprise, consumer, and even government services. In his top 5 holdings.
(Analysts’ price target is $560.00)
Kim BoltonTech companies like this got too expensive and got ahead of themselves. MSFT is still growing in double digits. AI won't go away, so the companies that invested will benefit for many years. MSFT is depressed now because it's not as an exciting story as Micron or Nvidia. The PE of 22x is attractive. Software isn't going anywhere.
Views it as a utility. Great company, wonderful platform, not just software. Innovative. Lofty 24x PE now, but potential of 12x PE for 2030 if estimates hold. Great moat, wonderful balance sheet, high operating/gross margins. Yield is 0.88%.
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)
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Premium contentWith recent earnings showing growth in cash reserves as debt was aggressively retired and shares bought back, we reiterate MSFT as a TOP PICK. Its subscription based business helps stabilize cash flow as its AI and cloud based systems continue to show excellent development opportunities. It trades at 27x earnings and supports a ROE over 30% and the dividend has been growing by over 10% per annum. We continue to recommend a stop at $360, looking to achieve $531 -- upside potential of 24%. Yield 0.8%
(Analysts’ price target is $554.28)
He has no software exposure (13% tech across the firm, a significant underweight). Have to pick your spots. Agentic AI puts software companies in a tricky position. Investing heavily in AI infrastructure, so less $$ to return to shareholders. Trading better than only 30% of S&P stocks in last 52 weeks.
On the other hand, sees semiconductors in a similar vein to copper and a call on the economy, and where pricing power gives inflation protection.
Concerns about Azure's growth, Copilot being underwhelming, ChatGPT, higher capex. But management's confident in Azure growth accelerating. A leading horseman of the AI revolution, but it's come off quite a bit on doubt about that.
Buy the great companies when there's doubt. Please buy it when it's at a PEG ratio less than 1, like now. Growing 19%, trading 18x PE. Sweet spot of the Mag 7 right now. Yield is 0.86%.
Greg NewmanEarly affiliation with OpenAI hurt it; rewritten contract is encouraging. Report this morning that it's in talks with Anthropic for some work. Software base isn't in jeopardy. Quite inexpensive, in mid-20s PE. Tons of cashflow.
Gordon ReidConcern for the hyperscalers has been capex. Still below 200-day MA, which is trending lower. Elite cloud-AI franchise. Real AI monetization down the road. Bar for execution is very high. Excellent long-term business, but technical picture is not clean at this point. Still 18% earnings growth, not unreasonably valued, but you have to pay attention to the charts.
Names like GOOG and AMZN are more diversified beyond the cloud. He also likes TSM. See his Top Picks.
Cloud business growing very quickly. Market's trying to decide whether it's a software company, cloud player, or AI company. Stuck between a rock (software company) and a hard place (OpenAI). OpenAI now can go to other platforms, but MSFT still owns the IP to distribute those licenses.
King of distribution, and distribution still matters. Sells subscriptions on per-head basis, and has to integrate models from other companies. In a grey area. He'd be more comfortable owning GOOG.
Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported 4.27 USD per share, beating the 4.06 USD estimate by 5.18%. Revenue for the same period reached 82.89 B USD, despite the estimate of 81.44 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 4.27 USD in earnings per share and 87.47 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 299% in the past 24h.
Pullback is great time to enter. She'd buy more, but she's already overweight this name. Still one of the most diversified, mega-cap tech companies in the world. Last night's numbers were spectacular, pushback is on the capex spending.
Brianne Gardner
The street isn't impressed with this tech giant's AI offering, and shares have been punished 23.5% so far this year and lost all its gains in the past 12 months. Are we talking about Alphabet a year ago? No, it's Microsoft today. MSFT is also saddled by the SaaSpoclypse, now slowly fading. Investors are looking past the AI threat to see a company still strong in cloud with Azure's expanding revenues, up 31% in the past year and expected to rise another 40% this year. MSFT is also sitting on a mountain of cash, and continues to buyback shares and sell software subscriptions.